After the shipments, where the results of the same could have led one to believe that the market could take an upward path, everything has remained the same, with a latent apathy, with too little activity for the traditionally busiest dates and with the strange sensation of not satisfying the situation for anyone, neither the seller nor the buyer.
In the week of shipments, the American almond market rise about 0.05 $/lb, with the Std 5% crop 2021 at 1.60 $/lb and crop 2022 at 1.70 $/lb. Always talking about average prices, as you can see in the market operations somewhat higher or lower depending on many factors, some specific as a need for some part, also depends on the shipment that is sought ... In the rest of varieties, sizes and grades we see how small sizes and less demanding grades are in a usual differential with respect to the Std, but in larger sizes or more demanding grades this differential is more bulky than usual because the American seller argues that the crop is entering smaller than expected and with worse yields. Therefore, focusing on the 2022 crop (since the 2021 crop is, after all, what is left and what is less, as in the case of larger calibres, the price goes up and what is more, as in the case of Std, the price is more competitive) we can find a Car Ssr 23/25 at 2 $/lb as well as a B/P Ssr 36/40 at 1.80 $/lb. We can also find Np X 25/27 at 2,35 $/lb, as Np X 27/30 at 2,20 $/lb or if we talk about 20/22 calibre around 2,50 $/lb. In the following graph you can see the price evolution Std 5%.
Therefore, in the last few days, what has been attempted is to assimilate this rise and settle it, far from going up again using shipments as the main reason. Despite the good data, the available unsold 2021 crop is high and the supply of second less is still very high (to understand this, you can consult our last report on August 2022 shipments at the following link https://hispanianuts.com/embarques-americanos-agosto-2022/Nor does it help this upward progression in the price sought by the American seller that the euro has devalued so much and is at historic lows. This means that, at the €/kg exchange rate, American almonds are more expensive and therefore less attractive. In fact, at the current exchange rate, a Std 5% 2021 crop is around 4/4.05 €/kg and the 2022 crop around 4.25/4.30 €/kg. However, second hand supply is still very aggressive, and even lower than origin, being at levels of 3.90/3.95 €/kg, proof of the amount of supply of this product. However, the European buyer is a bit on the sidelines, watching the volatility of the exchange rate and waiting to see how it all turns out. In fact, they are still looking for Std 5% available from €3.80/kg levels. The following graph shows the evolution of the price of Std in $/lb compared to €/kg where you can see the above mentioned.
The American seller, on the other hand, has opted to hold prices and not to dampen the exchange rate issue, as this would go against his will to gradually raise the market and favour buyers from outside the Euro zone.
As far as Spanish almonds are concerned, the situation has remained unchanged for several weeks now and, why not say it, the strategy has been the same since the beginning of the season. That of holding on to the price at the cost of fewer operations. Prices are still around 4.20/4.30 €/kg depending on the variety, with a possible +0.05 €/kg more for products with a better size, always talking about the owner. As for medium sizes (12/14), the +0.05 €/kg continues in the wake of the traditional +0.10 €/kg. However, in large sizes (s/14), differentials of +0.20 €/kg can be seen, even slightly more in varieties that are entering smaller this year, such as Lauranne or Guara. We have observed how the Soleta variety, this year, has been placed in the Guara's price trail, and its high calibres are quite highly valued, differing from the aforementioned on many occasions, simply due to their absence. The following graph shows the price evolution of Spanish almonds.
Apart from the varieties that are more commercialised, we find others, such as Antoñeta or Marinada, which are priced somewhat higher than a normal single-varietal variety due to their larger sizes. However, varieties with higher price levels, such as Constantí or Belona, have recently become heavier, and it is difficult to see levels of 5.90/5.95 €/kg in the case of Belona. We will see what happens with these varieties, which are very popular with the Marcona, as the latter is still not being marketed as it is later and this year we will have less quantity due to its lack of harvest. The same applies to the Largueta, which is later and possibly less harvested this year.
The organic issue is becoming a cause for concern. We are observing, on an international level, how the consumption of this product, due to its high price, has been strongly affected, and the world economic situation is not helping either. Last year, at this time, there was talk of prices that looked set to reach 9.50 €/kg and now we are wondering whether we are not already close to a drop to -2 €/kg, because not only is there little demand for this product, but it is not clear how far it needs to go before the buyer wakes up... This is the problem. Is the market asking us to return to the traditional path of +2 €/kg compared to conventional that was abandoned relatively recently? Time will tell. The following graph shows the evolution of organic prices.
Generally speaking, what is certain is that the short-term Spanish market seems to be not very active, as competition with the available American almond harvest 2021 at levels of -0.30/0.40 €/kg lower, makes it less attractive in a market that seems to be fairly well supplied in the short term. With the exchange rate issue, it has become more attractive in the long term, after Christmas, when its direct competition is the American 2022 almond, with price levels that are already more similar. The problem is that Spanish almonds, during the season, are not used to leaving the short term to one side and focusing on the long term. We will see what happens, but first, this long-term interest must come in order to be able to see how it acts.
What is clear is that more than a month of campaigning has passed and the situation is still rather calm. It looks like this could continue to be the case until Christmas and then, anything can happen, we will enter a purely speculative stage. From then on, atmospheric conditions will be the main factors that will dictate which way it goes, and nobody should rule anything out, as anything can happen.
We hope this helps.
Thanks
