American shipments August 2022

We have the publication of the last report about the American shipments of the last month of AUGUST 2022.

The figure of shipments is 228.30 Mlbs (+10.1%), being the figure of August last year 207.35 Mlbs. Thus, we have a record figure. This is the month of August with the highest number of shipments in history.

Export shipments have been 162.85 Mlbs (+15.7%), a record figure. Domestic shipments have been 65.45 Mlbs (-1.7%).

Regarding the harvest, we have an entry of 264.22 Mlbs (-15.19%). However, in the total harvest, adding carryin (836.81 Mlbs (+37.60%)), we have 1,095.75 Mlbs (+19.96%).

Regarding the sold and not shipped we have a total of 614.16 Mlbs (-14.25%). The shelled, compared to domestic, would be 303.39 Mlbs (+10.98%) and the exported 310.77 Mlbs (-29.83%).

With this situation, a total of 253.28 Mlbs (+2,595.57%) would remain unsold (inventory).

With this data we can see that they have sold 842.46 Mlbs in general, -8.78%* compared to last year when they had sold 923.61 Mlbs. If, according to July shipments, 298.47 Mlbs of new crop was sold and a total of 489.53 Mlbs unsold from the 2021 crop, what is unsold (inventory) is mostly from the 2021 crop, as less of the 2022 crop has entered than has been sold. Let's explain it more simply. If we assume that approximately 100 Mlbs of new crop has been sold during the month of August and another 100 Mlbs of 2021 crop (being optimistic), we would have around 400 Mlbs of 2022 crop sold and around 290/300 Mlbs of 2021 crop unsold. If around 230 Mbls has been shipped, let's say that 100 Mbls has been from 2022 and 130 Mbls has been from 2021. Therefore, 300 Mlbs of 2022 remain unshipped. If the total unshipped sales figure is 614 Mlbs, 314 Mbls are from 2021. If you have a total of 836 Mlbs from 2021, 130 Mlbs shipped and 314 Mlbs sold unshipped, you would have 392 Mlbs unsold. As we can see from the inventory, you have 253 Mlbs, so it doesn't add up. This is because you will have approximately 350/400 Mlbs unsold from 2021 but from 2022 you will have sold and shipped more than has come in, as is normal for futures sales. Clearly it can be seen that if we assume sale of the 2022 crop at 400 Mlbs and 264 Mbls have entered, this difference is the mismatch in terms of the inventory mentioned above.

Regarding the destination of shipments, countries such as Canada, China (strong rise), Italy (strong rise), Estonia (very strong rise), Saudi Arabia (very strong rise), Turkey (very strong rise), the United Arab Emirates (very strong rise) and Morocco (very strong rise) stand out positively. On the negative side are important countries such as Japan, South Korea (very strong decline), India (very strong decline), France, Germany, the Netherlands (very strong decline) and the United Kingdom. In Spain the situation has been very positive, with 23.40 Mlbs this month compared to 17.11 Mlbs the previous year (+36.76%). In Europe in general 63.10 Mlbs this month for 57.10 Mlbs the previous year (+10.51%).

With these data it can be seen that the countries that have been very active are mainly Muslim countries, Middle East and North Africa above all, with Turkey also standing out in the European/Asian part. Asian countries have been much less active than the previous year and Europe has been somewhat better, but this improvement has been orchestrated above all by Spain (where 10,611 tonnes have arrived and represented 36.76% of all imports from Europe) and Italy, incidentally, two of the main destinations for Spanish almonds.

It has been seen that there is still quite a lot of almond crop 2021 to be sold (perhaps around 350/400 Mlbs) and that there is much less almond crop 2022 sold than the previous year (around -30%).

Another detail that has been observed is the lower crop intake than expected. If, according to estimates, -10% of the crop is expected and so far -15.19% has come in, this could indicate two things. Either there is less crop than estimated or the crop has been delayed. It is true that the harvest has been delayed by 7/10 days and there have been problems in finding personnel and machinery. This could be an explanation. If, on the other hand, there is less crop than estimated, we will see in the coming months. Even so, with the large surplus, we can see a +19.96% increase in total available crop... There are more almonds than last year in total at this time.

It is being commented that the new almonds are coming in in smaller quantities, lower yields and smaller sizes. This depends on the area, the north with better results and the south with worse, due to the lower availability of water and the high temperatures.

In terms of prices, the market has not moved. Prior to shipments, the market seems to have seen a rise in price of +0.05 $/lb and it seems that the aim is to maintain and consolidate this rise before trying to give it a further boost in the face of good shipments on the one hand and poor sales on the other, in addition to the large surplus that continues to be a difficult burden to reduce.

As far as Spanish almonds are concerned, the large quantity of American almonds destined for their main markets is a cause for concern. What is clear is that the lack of sales to futures that we saw months ago, we can see which origin has covered these needs. We are likely to see an atypically calm season, as the short term competition, American almond 2021, has much more competitive price levels and the long term is not traditionally very well received. We will see how it copes with this situation of season and short term, possibly with the markets fairly well covered and going more to the long term, where it does not feel very comfortable.

What is clear is that the Spanish almond is comfortable in this situation of holding prices at the cost of not doing as many operations as usual at this time of year. We will see if this is enough for all the availability.

We hope this helps.

Thank you very much.

 

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