We have the publication of the last report about the American shipments for the last month of JULY 2022.
The figure of shipments is 169.42 Mlbs (-26.1%), lower than last year's July figure of 229.39 Mlbs.
Regarding the sales of the month we have a figure of 63.29 Mlbs, being last year of 77.64 Mlbs, which means a -18.49% of sales in the month of July..
Regarding to sales of new crop, 298.47 Mlbs have been sold at the moment, compared to 441.54 Mlbs last year, which means that they have sold -32.40% compared to last year's new crop. Last year at this time they had sold -36.56% of the previous crop and we know how this has turned out as the months have gone by. In other words, with similar total available harvests (crop + surplus), sales of new crop have been considerably reduced. In July 2020 new crop sales were 695.95 Mlbs, in 2021 441.54 Mlbs and now in 2022 a total of 298.47 Mlbs.
Export shipments have been 112.25 Mlbs (-29.2%). Domestic shipments have been 57.18 Mlbs (-19.3%).
Regarding the harvest, we have an entry of 2,922.00 Mlbs (-5.95%). However, in the total harvest, adding carryin, we have 3,471.70 Mlbs (-0.66%). It can be seen that, in the end, the total harvest has been very similar to last year.
Regarding the sold and not shipped we have a total of 348.22 Mlbs (+1.16%). The shelled crop would be 147.24 Mlbs (-9.73%) and the exported crop would be 200.98 Mlbs (+10.97%).
With this situation, a total of 489.53 Mlbs (+93.80%) would remain unsold (inventory), slightly more than half of the carryin (surplus).
With this data we can see that they have sold 2.98 Blbs in general, -8.02% compared to last year when they had sold 3.24 Blbs. The total amount shipped is 2.63 Blbs (-9.12%), with a total harvest of 3.47 Blbs there would be a surplus of 837.75 Mlbs. With this surplus and the subjective estimate of 2.6 Blbs for the 2022 harvest, we would have an available crop very similar to this one.
Regarding the destination of shipments, countries such as China (very strong increase), Saudi Arabia (strong increase), Arab Emirates and Morocco (strong increase) stand out positively. On the negative side are important countries such as Canada, Japan (very strong fall), South Korea (very strong fall), India (very strong fall), France (strong fall), Germany (very strong fall), Italy (strong fall), Holland, United Kingdom (strong fall) and Turkey. In Spain, the situation has been very negative, with 12.97 Mlbs this month compared to 25.75 Mlbs the previous year (-49.63%). In total, 226.99 Mlbs of crop have been exported this year and last year 238.94 Mlbs (-5.00%). In Europe in general 43.57 Mlbs this month against 75.42 Mlbs last year (-42.22%). The total crop has been exported to Europe -13.28% less than last harvest.
With these data, it can be seen that the July shipments have been clearly affected by the problems of the lorry strike in the port of Oakland. Therefore, these bad figures were to be expected.
Of greater concern are the bad sales data for the 2021 crop, what remains unsold, the high carryin, the little sold of the 2022 crop and also, and the exact figure is not known, what is shipped unsold, which in this report appears as if it were sold (shipped) but there is a quantity that is not really so, either because the American seller himself has shipped it unsold or because the buyer has done so for a later resale. This figure has always been present in all previous seasons, but in this one it seems to be higher than usual. These are sensations, judging by what can be seen in the market of a large amount of almond supply available or floating due to the massive arrival of containers in the last few months to correct the serious logistical problems in the first months of the year.
With such negative data as we close the 2021 crop, the American seller is a little uneasy and is clearly a seller. In fact, we are at some of the lowest levels (in dollars) in recent years. Following this report, prices have positioned themselves at levels of $1.55/1.60/lb for 2021 crop and around $1.70/lb for 2022 crop, being more active in selling 2021 crop, especially for early shipments or floating/available commodities.
The problem is that this starts to affect the very low 2022 crop sales, and it is something that we have already seen from this crop that is over that it is not a good situation, as long as the next crop is not disastrous.
We will see how everything goes, but with everything that is on the table, it does not invite us to have a bullish short/medium term thought, a rather absent and calm buyer (it is true that we are in mid-August, a period with few buyers) that gives the image of not being very needy, we will see to what extent, because this year with the rise in freight costs, the €/$ exchange rate and what is economically speaking, does not make the buyer very brave, but the very low prices at origin do invite us to be so. In the long term, anything can happen, we will see if the drought continues to increase, if on the other hand it rains more, temperatures, frost... all this with a view to the next harvest.
On the Spanish almond side, the supply side continues with its stable position of maintaining prices (around 4.30 €/kg, monovarietals more at 4.35 €/kg and if it is to guide 4.35/4.40 €/kg), activity being very scanty as the purchase of husk is being complicated by proposing prices that do not match the reality of the market, and this has caused a bottleneck in the purchase of husk and in turn in the sale of grain (also caused by the few futures sales that do not make the buyer of shell in a hurry). As a result, there is little supply which is holding up the price at the cost of few operations carried out.
At these levels, so far away from the American, the Spanish market loses a lot of attraction and is reduced to a scarce, loyal market and some urgency, little more. This is valid for a scarce supply, but as soon as the sale needs more exit, there will have to be a clear correction for it to become attractive again and seeing the situation with the American, this correction will have to be bearish, unless something changes, especially in the American, which seems complicated in the short/medium term.
It is up to us to know what position we want to have, whether to hold on at the cost of few operations or to give more exit at the cost of price. What is clear is that today, at the levels at which the Spanish stock is moving, the attractiveness for the buyer is scarce.
The organic almond continues on its listless path. It is not clear exactly where it stands and has not yet achieved the stability or clarity it needs.
We hope this helps.
Thank you very much.