We have the publication of the last report about the American shipments of the last month of JUNE 2022.
The figure of shipments is 278.59 Mlbs (+26.3%), much higher than the figure of June last year with 220.50 Mlbs, being this way the record figure for the second consecutive month together with the figure of last May.
Regarding the sales of the month we have a figure of 118.73 Mlbs, being last year 108.71 Mlbs, which means a +9.22% of sales in the month of June.
Regarding the sales of new crop, 236.05 Mlbs have been sold at the moment, when last year it was 326.10 Mlbs, this means that a -27.61% of new crop has been sold compared to last year.
The export shipments have been 214.67 Mlbs (+38.3%) being a record figure for the third consecutive month. Domestic shipments have been 63.92 Mlbs (-2.0%).
Regarding the harvest, we have an entry of 2,914.56 Mlbs (-6.07%). However, in the total harvest, adding the carryin, we have 3,464.41 Mlbs (-0.76%). It can be seen that in the end the total harvest has been very similar to last year.
Regarding the sold and not shipped we have a total of 454.35 Mlbs (-8.39%). The shelled, compared to domestic, would be 188.79 Mlbs (-9.27%) and the exported 265.56 Mlbs (-7.75%).
With this situation, a total of 545.53 Mlbs (+67.19%) would remain unsold (inventory).
With this data we can see that they have sold 2.92 Blbs in general, -7.77% compared to last year when they had made 3.16 Blb. With a total harvest of 3.46 Blbs and assuming a July shipment similar to last year of 0.23 Blbs, added to the 2.46 Blbs already shipped, we have a total shipment of 2.69 Blbs, which would mean a surplus or carryin of 0.77 Blbs. Of this carryin, if now 0.55 Blbs remains unsold and in July 0.08 Blbs is sold like last year, 0.47 Blbs would remain unsold, more than half of the carryin.
Regarding the destination of shipments, countries such as China, South Korea, India (very strong increase), Belgium, Germany, Holland (strong increase), Saudi Arabia (strong increase), Turkey (very strong increase), Arab Emirates (very strong increase) and Morocco (strong increase) stand out positively. On the negative side are important countries such as Japan, France, Italy and the United Kingdom (strong decline). In Spain, the situation has been positive, with 29.42 Mlbs this month compared to 22.14 Mlbs the previous year (+32.82%). In total, 214.01 Mlbs of crop have been exported this year and last year 213.19 Mlbs (+0.38%). In Europe overall 82.72 Mlbs this month compared to 71.27 Mlbs last year (+16.07%). The total crop has been exported to Europe -10.23% less than last harvest.
These good shipment data give even more strength to the bullish situation after the publication of the objective estimate of 2.6 Blbs for the next harvest. But we cannot lose sight of the fact that in total crop, with these data, we will have two very similar harvests. In other words, the next harvest will, a priori, be very similar to this one. But the scenario is very different.
There is a parity in the case of currency that makes a price of 1.75 $/lb today as it was this time last year equal to 2 $/lb if we translate it into €/kg. Not only because of the currency, but also because of the increase in logistics costs. For this comparison an exchange rate of 1.10/1.12 and last year's freight prices have been used.
From this year's experience, especially in Europe, almonds above 4/4.10 €/kg have difficulty in flowing, demand is very much withdrawn at higher prices.
On the other hand, there is less of last year's current and new crop sold, but the feeling is that the markets are as well covered as last year at this stage. Could it be that the upcoming economic situation is causing the increase in world consumption to come to a standstill? From previous harvests there is no way that the market will assume more than 2.7/2.8 Blbs. Not only in terms of consumption, but also logistically speaking, as everything else is surplus. Perhaps next season, with what is on the horizon, will not be a season for large increases in consumption.
With all this data, the American retailer is in the process of feeling it out. He has not done as in the past, when he has proposed an increase and worked with it. This time he is proposing an increase, but he is testing how much it will be. Will it be +0.05/0.10 $/lb? Will it be more? It seems that the intention is to go cautiously, raise a certain amount and if the market pulls, raise more... a staggered increase. But it is not clear yet, the American market is looking for its place. It seems that it does not want the same thing to happen as last year when prices were proposed that were not accepted and then stopped for 2 months... something that is still being paid.
So we have to be very attentive these days to see where the market is established.
On the Spanish almond side, it is awaiting the situation of the American almond. Before the objective figure, a new crop was harvested at 4.20 €/kg and the current crop was at levels of 4.25/4.30 €/kg. But these prices are now out of date. We must wait to see what position the American almond takes and, above all, the Spanish almond. What has been seen in recent months is that much above the American almond, or much above the aforementioned 4/4.10 €/kg, does not flow with joy, only punctual operations are carried out soon, which is what has sustained the market in recent months, also due to a low supply.
We will see under this new situation what position it adopts in the market and how it will be received by the buyer, who is much more covered in American than in Spanish than last year, as this year very little Spanish has been made for the new crop. The latter will probably give, in the early stages of the harvest, less compaction to the market, and this is a very important difference compared to last year. We will see what happens in the coming days.
We hope this helps.
Thank you very much.