We already have the publication of the last report about the American shipments of the last month of SEPTEMBER 2022.
The figure of shipments is 188.38 Mlbs (-17.2%), being the figure of September last year 227.64 Mlbs.
Regarding the sales of the month we have a figure of 240.18 Mlbs, being last year 232.09 Mlbs, which means a +3.49% of sales in the month of September.
The export shipments have been 136.66 Mlbs (-16.4%). Domestic shipments have been 51.73 Mlbs (-19.3%).
In reference to the harvest, we have an entry of 978.51 Mlbs (-8.41%). However, in the total harvest, adding carryin (836.81 Mlbs (+37.60%)), we have 1,795.75 Mlbs (+8.49%).
Concern the sold and not shipped we have a total of 665.96 Mlbs (-7.59%). The shelled, compared to domestic, would be 338.45 Mlbs (+11.28%) and the exported 327.51 Mlbs (-21.37%).
With this situation, a total of 713.10 Mlbs (+42.77%) would remain unsold (inventory).
With this data we can see that 1,082.65 Mlbs have been sold in general, a -6.32% compared to last year when 1,155.69 Mlbs were sold.
Regarding the destination of the shipments, countries such as France (strong increase), Germany (strong increase), Holland, Estonia (strong increase), Saudi Arabia (strong increase), Turkey and Morocco (very strong increase) stand out positively. On the negative side are important countries such as Canada, China, Japan (down strongly), South Korea (down strongly), India (down strongly), Italy, the United Kingdom (down strongly) and the United Arab Emirates. In Spain, the situation has been negative, with 10.13 Mlbs this month compared to 13.42 Mlbs the previous year (-24.52%). In total, 33.53 Mlbs of crop has been exported this year and last year 30.53 Mlbs (+9.82%). In Europe overall 37.39 Mlbs this month compared to 37.49 Mlbs last year (-0.19%). The total crop has been exported to Europe +6.26% more than last year's crop.
These data show that the countries that have been very active are the Muslim countries, the Middle East and North Africa, above all, with Turkey also standing out in the European/Asian part. Europe has also been active, with some countries being better and others worse. Asian countries have been much less active than in the previous year.
It can be seen that there is still quite a lot of almond crop 2021 to be sold (maybe around 250/300 Mlbs) and that there is much less almond crop 2022 sold than the previous year (maybe around -30%).
Another detail that has been verified is that the entry of the crop has been regulated with respect to last August which was -15.19%. With the current figure of -8.41% compared to last year, it is more in line with the estimates where -10% of the crop is expected. Even so, with the large surplus, we can see +8.49% in total available crop... There are more almonds than last year in total at this point.
These numbers presented in the report, show negative data such as shipments or the important weight that the 2021 crop continues to have. But they also show positive data such as a positive sales month that cushions a little the bad month of August, the numbers of futures sales have improved and with this the slab that the campaign started with is reduced a little, something commendable in a turbulent market where the Euro zone lives in a constant seesawing of prices with the ups and downs of the exchange rate, the Arab market that seems to save the situation a little and the Asian market that is quite conservative.
The falling prices of the last few days have been the prelude and part of the explanation for these figures. After the publication, a further fall in prices has been seen, to levels of around 1.60 $/lb, talking about the Std 5%. With this, we would be talking about a decrease in prices of -0.10 $/lb with respect to the 1.70 $/lb that we had not so many days ago. At the exchange rate, we are talking about around 4.05 €/kg.
As far as Spanish almonds are concerned, one point of considerable concern is the good shipments that have taken place to countries that are traditionally consumers of Spanish almonds, such as France and Germany, with the exception of Italy. There are still signs that sales made in the future were covered with almonds of American origin rather than Spanish almonds in line with the lower activity we are seeing this season.
As far as prices are concerned, there has been no variation over the last few weeks, remaining at levels of 4.25/4.30 €/kg. The supply is not too high, but it is centred on owners of low calibres and calibrated in medium calibres. On the other hand, demand, which is not too great either, is centred more on large sizes, which are more difficult to find this season as this one is rather short in size. But in general, there is little activity, especially if we look at exports, where competition with available American or prompt/mid-delivery American at 3.85/3.90 €/kg is very direct competition despite the 2021 harvest.
The organic product is still pretty much missing and out of action, not clear what its real market position is and waiting for demand to appear in some way to take positions. What seems clear is that the higher priced product (Ecological, Marcona, Largueta, Belona, Constantí...) costs more to operate.
We hope this helps.
Thank you very much.