MOST IMPORTANT RESULTS SHIPMENTS SEPTEMBER 2025:
– Shipments: 197,26 Mlbs (-7,6%)
– September sales: 219.54 million pounds (-19.7%)
– Total sales to date: 904.00 million pounds (-13.8%)
– Carrying: 483,81 Mlbs (-3,8%)
– Harvest intake: 992.39 million pounds (-4.1%)
– Total quantity available (harvest + surplus harvest 24): 1,456.35 Mlbs (-4.00%)
– Total sold without shipment: 548.94 million pounds (-17.8%)
– Total unsold: 552.35 million pounds (+18.1%)
– Shipments to Spain in September: 10.58 million pounds (+49.2%) (total since August +41.60%)
– Shipments to Europe in September: 42.34 million pounds (+37.0%) (total since August +23.3%)
– Major countries with positive shipments: Canada, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Morocco.
– Major countries with negative shipments: Domestic market, China (a very significant decline), South Korea, India (a very significant decline), Saudi Arabia, Turkey (a very significant decline) and the United Arab Emirates.
Now we can see (due to the very good shipments to Europe) the high level of sales activity in the European market in the second half of July/early August, when the market fell sharply due to the publication of the objective estimate. We can also see (from the lower sales figures, which are not bad, but lower than in recent years) how much less active this market has been once levels rose rapidly again, with activity remaining very weak from mid-August to the present. Once the market exceeded levels of $2.70/2.80/lb in Std 5%, the European market stopped buying more than what was fair and necessary.
This is still the case today. Even more so due to the downward trend we are experiencing, which predates this shipment publication, where buyers are scarce and those that do exist are tending to lower their prices. We have already seen at the Anuga trade fair that buyers are still waiting for a drop that has not yet arrived and, in the meantime, are waiting until the last minute to buy just what they need to get by, with no large volumes or long terms. And this will be even more pronounced due to these shipments, which clearly point to a bearish outlook.
However, sellers are holding out for now. If buyers have been purchasing only what is necessary for so long, without buying in large volumes or for the long term, then there cannot be much supply. It is true that we are seeing a downward trend, but it is happening very slowly due to resistance from sellers. What's more, in light of this data, which in other situations would cause an instant drop in price, we have not seen an immediate reaction, for now, of a collapse or significant decline. Everything indicates that the price should fall, at least slightly. But the instant reaction has not been catastrophic. Supply is trying to resist. Demand may fall a few pence and then fall further.
It is clearly a buyer/seller tug-of-war. These shipments give the seller less leverage and help the buyer, but we shall see. Many American sellers do not see this data as bearish. Quite the contrary. They believe that the market will strengthen even further, as India is in dire need of buying and may cause shell prices to strengthen or even rise, and sellers will disappear in grain, which will create tension. We will see who wins the game.
We hope our comments will help.
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