The market is in a bearish position. There is not much buyer appetite, and what there is appears at lower prices than the existing ones, with a reasonable amount of supply, some with greater need than others.
In California, supply clearly exceeds demand, particularly in relation to the European market. Demand is low, and when it does appear, it is at prices lower than the vast majority of the supply on offer. Little by little, prices are falling with each passing day, and although selling resistance is visible, there is always some supply that accepts the lower buying offer and causes the rest to follow suit. This situation is true for all varieties, although it has been more pronounced in Std 5%, as this is the one that has risen the most. The European market is now attractive for supply due to the product already being handled, which means that European buyers, who are possibly not too well covered in general judging by shipments in recent months, are pushing as hard as they can, with success for now.
Std 5% prices are already at $2.85/lb, with buyers attempting to reach $2.80/lb. Other varieties, such as Carmel SSR 23/25, are trading at $3/lb, while 27/30 is around $2.95/lb. The highest price, for Non Pareil Extra 23/25, is around $3.15/lb.
The situation is similar for Spanish almonds. Despite a few days of bearish sentiment in California and low supply in Spain, which is quite unusual in a downward price situation, there is now more supply available. Some believe that, as the price has arrived later, it will fall more sharply because it has not followed the American trend. Others believe that there will be more resistance because a lot of shelled almonds have been purchased at high prices. We will see how the situation develops.
Be that as it may, today the supply is clearly visible. Demand is virtually non-existent, although little by little things are still being done. Perhaps because the volume of supply is not enormous, it makes people more patient than if it were excessive, and the decline, for now, is not sharp. But it will also depend on each person's need for what they can endure.
Today, the references we have are unsized valencia (or another specific variety) at levels of €5.70/5.75/kg, 12/14 levels of €5.90/5.95/kg and s/14 levels of €6/6.05/kg. It depends on whether it is monovarietal or the variety. If we look at more specific product references, Belona is estimated at €6.20/6.25/kg for owner-grown and €7/7.10/kg for organic.
As the market is bearish, it is difficult to set exact prices. What seems like a price today may soon be another. That is why a range is set so that it lasts a little longer.
We hope this helps.
Thanks
