Next, we are going to analyze the last report published concerning the American shipments for the last month of NOVEMBER 2023.
The figure of shipments is 238.28 Mlbs (+16.6%), the second highest figure of November shipments in history, being last year's figure 204.30 Mlbs.
Regarding sales for the month we have a figure of 208.22 Mlbs, being last year's figure of 200.63 Mlbs, which means a +3.79% of sales in the month of November. These are not the best November sales, there have been years like 2021 or 2020 that have been higher.
Export shipments have been 177.91 Mlbs (+24.7%). Domestic shipments were 60.37 Mlbs (-2.0%).
Regarding the harvest, we have an entry of 1,867.17 Mlbs (-13.16%). However, in the total harvest, adding carryin (800.29 Mlbs (-4.36%)), we have 2,630.12 Mlbs (-10.66%). The delay in the entry of the harvest continues to be noticeable, which is being regulated month by month. With this data, we would have a harvest of 2.26 Blbs (far from the 2.60 Blbs of the objective estimate), although we will still have to wait a little longer to have this clearer. In California, it is generally said that the crop will end up between 2.35/2.45 Blbs, although there is always some opinion that differs from the average up or down.
Regarding the sold and not shipped we have a total of 647.42 Mlbs (-6.33%). Shelled would be, with respect to domestic, 269.42 Mlbs (-13.16%) and export 377.99 Mlbs (-0.76%).
With this situation, a total of 1,067.35 Mlbs (-24.69%) would remain unsold (inventory). This figure is not very representative due to the aforementioned delay in the entry of the harvest.
With this data we can see that overall we have sold 1,562.77 Mlbs, +2.36% over last year's 1,526.75 Mlbs. This means that we are in a better overall sales position than last year, which is good as it seems increasingly clear that there will be less crop than estimated and therefore less crop than last year. If you have this +2.36% more sold than last year at this time and we have, for example, -10% in the total crop, as there is so far, it means that you have 2.36 + 10 = 12.36% better sales position than last year. What is suspected is that this good sales situation is quite accentuated in the carryin, previous crop, which would be very little left to sell already, because with the delay of harvest, it has been necessary to pull it more than usual, which at the same time has been good because it has been high, and it has been liquidated earlier than expected, leaving less time, less room for maneuver, for this reason, to the new crop, with the fact that it seems that it is somewhat lower than expected. In other words, the surplus of the last harvest has practically been sold in its entirety at the expense, to a great extent, of the current harvest, which, as there is less, we will have to see if it compensates this with what the old harvest has taken away from the current one, as far as sales are concerned.
Regarding the destination of shipments, countries such as Canada, China (very strong increase), South Korea, India (strong increase), France, Italy (strong increase), the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Turkey (strong increase), the United Arab Emirates (strong increase) and Morocco stand out positively. On the negative side are important countries such as Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. In Spain, the situation has been quite positive, with 16.84 Mlbs this month compared to 13.61 Mlbs the previous year (+23.73%). In total so far this year we have a figure of 58.18 Mlbs this year against 59.69 Mlbs last year (-2.53%). In Europe this month 49.19 Mlbs for 42.14 Mlbs last year (+16.73%). In total so far this year we have a figure of 198.62 Mlbs this year for 179.81 Mlbs last year (+10.46%).
As can be seen from the above mentioned data, we are facing a bullish situation. We have positive shipment data, something expected due to the good monthly sales so far, a November sales figure that, although not spectacular, is somewhat better than last year. Judging by the shipments, the good sales that we have been seeing these months are mainly destined to countries such as India, China, Middle East, Arab countries... Europe, which has also had good shipments, creates more doubts judging by the apathy that has been observed day after day in the buyer. It is true that this feeling does not correspond with the good data observed in this report, but it does make it clear that it is not the area that stands out or the area with the best shipments observed month after month.
Then we find some data that can be seen as something not so positive, as is the sold not shipped, sales made in the future. As we have seen before, we have a -6.33% that, unless December turns it around, does not invite us to think that we will continue to see such good shipments in the future, although this can quickly turn around in any month that is very active.
Another much awaited data in this report is the crop intake. Little by little we are seeing that we will indeed have a lower quantity than expected by the objective estimate (2.60 Blbs), which was similar to last year's crop. It is still too early to know exactly how it will be, since with the delay that occurred, month by month, the entry is regularizing, but the fact that it will be less is practically a reality.
Last November there was a situation of price stability, which has lasted until the present. It is true that, with the publication of the last shipments in October, the price tried to give a small upward push, which seems to have been maintained in some variety, size or specific quality, but in the star product in Europe, the Std 5%, it did not have much of a run. They quickly returned to the levels of 1.60/1.63 $/lb, quite usual levels since the beginning of the harvest, which have lasted until the last Conference in Sacramento, where the supply has withdrawn again and showed bullish symptoms again, waiting for a good present report. Indeed, it has been good, which makes us hope that we will see again, as in previous months' shipments, an upward supply push that time will tell if it is permanent or not.
What is absolutely certain is the jump in price with respect to a Std 5% and the rest of the products, in terms of varieties, calibers and qualities. As it seems that the crop in California comes with larger size and with the already mentioned in previous reports the greater insect damage, it is more difficult to find small product that complies with, at least, the SSR quality. Therefore, similar prices are observed between low and high grades, when we talk about SSR grades and above. This is further accentuated if we bring into the equation varieties with less and less availability each year, such as Butte Padre. In fact, today we have a Carmel SSR 23/25, for example, which is cheaper than a Butte Padre SSR 36/40. Or this Carmel at similar prices or even a little lower than the same Carmel variety with the same quality, but in caliber 27/30.
Therefore, after these shipments, the seller will try to raise prices due to the good figures. Time will tell, with the buyer's permission, if they are here to stay or on the contrary, if they will pull back to the situation they were in before the shipments. What is clear, judging by the feeling given, is that there is no nervousness on either the buying or the selling side. Each with their own motives and opinions, but everything is flowing smoothly and in a balanced way. We do not observe, and it has been usual in the present harvest, nervousness in any of the two parts. There is still a lot of almonds from the current harvest to be sold, it is true, there is less harvest than expected, it is also true. We will have to see if it compensates one thing with the other to maintain this situation of balance and tranquility that is breathed, seeing more and more on the horizon the dance of the data and evolution of the coming harvest that will be weighing on the market as it advances towards it.
The Spanish almond market continues to experience a situation of tranquility, equilibrium, unchanged prices and, why not say it, apathy as far as activity is concerned. We observe that it goes in spurts. We find a streak where the activity grows and movement is heard to suddenly give a 180 degree turn and stop the market, not completely, but to become apathetic.
Prices are maintained and no major changes are seen, we continue to see the Owner's Commune without size guarantee at levels of 3.50 €/kg, medium sizes at levels of 3.70/3.80 €/kg and high sizes at levels of 4.60/4.70 €/kg. Although in the last weeks it has been seen that the buying attitude has become weaker, together with the low selling attitude that has been since the beginning of the season. The high calibers, desired until not so long ago, are now less attractive, perhaps this great overprice that this year has been given, due to the low quantity of them, together with the fact that the American almond is already beginning to arrive, with larger size and more attractive prices in high calibers, has made the s/14 lower its attractiveness. The rest of the products are maintained, perhaps because the supply does not tighten and therefore does not make it go down, or perhaps because the now more absent buyer does not tighten to go up... as a result, tables on the scoreboard and stable prices.
Currently, demand is concentrated in certain products, very difficult this season, such as soleta s/14, largueta s/12, marconas s/14 or guara... and supply is concentrated in lower calibers, all within a framework of stability and equilibrium.
The organic almond continues stable at levels of 5.95/6 € / kg, depending on their specific conditions, which does much good to this market, plunged in recent years in a situation of many changes in price.
We will see how the Spanish almond faces 2024. Many unknowns on the table. More almonds than usual from Christmas onwards, a coming harvest that is not seen with optimism given the low rainfall we have so far, the campaign flows in a balanced way, not too active bordering on overwhelm, calmer, direct competition with the American that is already beginning to arrive... We will see how it all works out. What is clear is that in summer everything was seen with pessimism regarding the situation of the Spanish almond and the campaign has flowed better than expected. Hopefully this will continue with the competition already in the rearview mirror.
We hope our comments will be helpful.
Thank you very much.
