Next, we are going to analyze the last report published concerning the American shipments for the past month of DECEMBER 2023.
The shipments figure is 229.40 Mlbs (+11.2%), the second highest December shipments figure in history, last year's figure being 206.35 Mlbs. The record month was December 2020 with a figure of 256.90 Mlbs.
Regarding sales for the month we have a figure of 219.42 Mlbs, being last year's figure of 234.91 Mlbs, which means a -6.59% of sales in the month of December. If we compare it not only with last year, but also with the previous one (246.80 Mlbs) it has not been an excessively good month in terms of monthly sales in the last 3 years.
Export shipments amounted to 172.72 Mlbs (+12.2%). Domestic shipments were 56.68 Mlbs (+8.0%).
Regarding the crop, we have an entry of 2,228.12 Mlbs (-6.24%). However, in the total harvest, adding carryin (800.29 Mlbs (-4.36%)), we have 2,983.85 Mlbs (-5.74%). Last year, from December to July 194.69 Mlbs came in. If, for example, we add this to what is now incoming, we would have a final crop of 2.42 Blbs. There are opinions that postulate that with the delay there is probably a little more than last year to come in, so there could be a little more crop, and others that say the opposite and the crop will not even reach 2.40 Blbs, and will remain around 2.35 Blbs. One way or the other, it will be below the 2.60 Blbs estimated and the 2.57 Blbs of last year.
Regarding the sold and not shipped we have a total of 637.43 Mlbs (-11.43%). Shelled would be, with respect to domestic, 277.62 Mlbs (-15.96%) and export 359.81 Mlbs (-7.59%). This data in the shipments of last November was a total of -6.33%, it has worsened quite a lot, almost the double. This means that the amount sold without shipment is decreasing compared to last year, i.e., there is less and less sold without shipment (medium/long term).
With this situation, a total of 1,201.66 Mlbs (-14.41%) would remain unsold (inventory). This figure is becoming more and more similar to last year's due to the aforementioned, even though the shipment is better than last year and compensates, but little by little it is getting closer.
With these data we can see that 1,782.19 Mlbs have been sold in general, +1.16% compared to last year when 1,761.65 Mlbs were sold. In other words, they have sold more than last year with less crop available, which puts them in a very comfortable position. Assuming a total crop entry of 2.40 Blbs and with the existing carryin, it would make a total of 3.2 Blbs, 55% of the total available crop would have been sold now in December, only in 4 months.
Regarding the destination of shipments, countries such as Canada, China (very strong increase), Japan, South Korea, India, France, Germany, Italy (very similar), the Netherlands (very similar), the United Kingdom (very similar), the United Arab Emirates and Morocco stand out positively. On the negative side are important countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey. In Spain the situation has been positive, with 19.45 Mlbs this month compared to 18.76 Mlbs the previous year (+3.68%). In total so far this year, we have a figure of 77.63 Mlbs this year compared to 78.45 Mlbs last year (-1.04%). In Europe this month 62.29 Mlbs for 59.92 Mlbs last year (+3.96%). In total so far this year we have a total of 260.91 Mlbs this year for 239.73 Mlbs last year (+8.83%). As can be seen from the above data, the situation of shipments is once again good for another month, which generates a bullish situation, in addition to being in a very comfortable situation of generally selling a larger quantity than last year at this point, having less crop. But there are other factors in these data that are less positive, such as monthly sales lower than last year and forward sales or the amount sold not shipped, which is increasingly lower than last year.
As can be seen from the above data, the situation of shipments is once again good for another month, which generates a bullish situation, in addition to being in a very comfortable situation of generally having sold a larger quantity than last year at this point with less harvest. But there are other factors in these data that are less positive, such as monthly sales lower than last year and forward sales or the amount sold not shipped, which is increasingly lower than last year.
Almost all major countries have increased their shipments and thus have pulled the cart in the month of December, especially Asian countries and not so much the Muslim countries.
Before the publication of shipments, the beginning of the year, the market is in a situation of not too much supply, less and less as the date of shipments approached, with prices between 1.65/1.70 $/lb, but with a demand that it was difficult to pay much more than 1.60 $/lb, talking about a Std 5%. The market was not flowing too much, it was coming from Christmas dates where there is usually little movement and there was an important difference in price between this Std 5% and the rest of the products.
After the publication of the shipments, the market quickly reacted in a bullish way. The buyer does agree to pay levels of 1.65/1.70 $/lb but the seller is looking for a little more, it is postulated at levels of around 1.75 $/lb. We note that it is the Std 5% that reacts the most, the rest of the products being a little more stable in price and what is sought is to reduce the rather large price difference existing at the moment.
The buyer is quite interested, this time it seems that the American seller achieves what he has been looking for in previous months, to propose a bullish situation and that this is easily accepted by the buyer. A buyer/seller pulse begins where the latter is checking how far the buyer can go. For this, the supply disappears quite a lot, it is difficult to find coverage not only in the short term, but also in the medium/long term, and not only for Std 5%, but also for the rest of the products, and this situation has continued up to the present.
It is true that, a priori, at least in the European market and the market that we control, we observe that the buyer finds it difficult to pay the prices proposed by the seller, coupled with a significant lack of supply, the activity after shipments has not been high at all. In addition, these last days, the seller has given again a push to the prices, perhaps motivated by a buyer who finds it difficult to pay what he asks, but a quite intense and numerous buyer, and places the prices at levels around 1.80 $/lb for the short term and 1.85/1.87 $/lb for the long term, talking about the Std 5%. In other words, the buyer has raised prices again in the last few days, despite, at least as far as we see it, that the buyer has reached a point where it costs him. But the seller, in view of the good shipments, the good sales position he has and the good response of the buyer after the publication, is taking advantage of the situation, all within a framework of very low supply.
Some people think that this is a strategy on the part of the seller to take advantage of this season before the first flowering results arrive, because it seems that this season, if everything goes normal and nothing extraordinary happens, is expected to be good and if this happens it will be complicated to propose a bull market. For this there is still a long way to go and everything has to be normal and nothing happens, but it is certain that the possibility of a good harvest is real. Trees rested, important amount of water... we repeat, there is still a long way to go, but for now, the possibilities are real.
As for the Spanish crop, it seems that something similar to the American one will happen and it will be a reduction in the supply strong enough to push the market and prices up with few operations in the market.
We hope our comments will be helpful.
Thank you very much.
