We will now analyze the latest report published on US shipments for the month of September 2023.
The figure of shipments is 217.67 Mlbs (+15.5%), being last year's September figure of 188.38 Mlbs.
Regarding sales for the month we have a figure of 269.83 Mlbs, being last year's figure of 240.18 Mlbs, which means a +12.37% of sales in the month of September.
Export shipments have been 154.82 Mlbs (+13.3%). Domestic shipments amounted to 62.84 Mlbs (+21.5%).
Regarding the crop, we have an entry of 625.40 Mlbs (-36.09%). However, in the total harvest, adding carryin (800.29 Mlbs (-4.36%)), we have 1,413.18 Mlbs (-21.30%). We clearly notice the influence of the delay in harvesting, an estimated delay of 1 month or 1.5 months. Therefore, this figure is not very representative yet, until this delay is normalized.
Regarding the sold and not shipped we have a total of 674.12 Mlbs (+1.23%). Shelled would be, with respect to domestic, 260.26 Mlbs (-23.10%) and export 413.86 Mlbs (+26.37%).
With this situation, a total of 309.38 Mlbs (-56.61%) would remain unsold (inventory). This figure is not very representative due to the aforementioned delay in the entry of the harvest.
With this data we can see that we have sold overall 1,103.80 Mlbs, +1.95% over last year's 1,082.65 Mlbs. This means that we are in a position of total sales somewhat better than last year, which is good if you really certify that there is less crop than predicted and therefore less crop than last year. According to the data we see, the sale of the carryin, of crop 2022, is advanced, and the sale of the current crop 2023 is not so advanced, something that the seller has wanted to be so until it is clear what the real situation of the crop is, after the delay, and everything we know about greater losses and serious defects than expected.
Regarding the destination of shipments, countries such as Canada, Japan (strong increase), South Korea (strong increase), India (very strong increase), Germany (very similar), Italy (very similar), the Netherlands (strong increase), the United Kingdom (very strong increase), Turkey (very strong increase) and Morocco stand out positively. On the negative side are important countries such as China (down strongly), France, Saudi Arabia (down very strongly) and the United Arab Emirates. In Spain, the situation has been somewhat negative, with 9.59 Mlbs this month compared to 10.13 Mlbs the previous year (-5.33%). In total so far this crop year we have a figure of 27.48 Mlbs this year for 33.53 Mlbs last year (-18.04%) In Europe this month 41.17 Mlbs for 37.39 Mlbs last year (+10.11%). In total so far this year we have a figure of 105.77 Mlbs this year for 100.48 Mlbs last year (+5.26%).
As can be seen from the above-mentioned data, we are facing a bullish situation. Not only because of good shipments, which was more or less foreseeable judging by the not so good data of September last year and the good sales of last August. What is more remarkable are the good sales achieved. Despite the fact that Europe has been apathetic, cold, unattractive with the prices so far proposed by the vendor (something that has been seen week after week and more live at the last Anuga fair), we note that sales must be the result of good movements especially outside the old continent. It is worth mentioning countries such as India, where at least shipments have been spectacular.
It is therefore to be expected that, in view of these results, sellers will be bullish on the price. Up to this moment, prices of 1.47/1.50 $/lb in crop 2022 and 1.57/1.63 $/lb (depending on the date of shipment) in crop 2023 were being quoted, of course with sellers offering even higher prices. After these shipments, we have observed 2022 and 2023 crop prices already close and wanting to catch levels of 1.65/1.68 $/lb. Always talking about Std 5%, as the rest of the calibers and grades are at abnormally high differentials.
It only remains to be seen whether or not the buyer accepts this new situation. As we have mentioned, at least in Europe, the previous situation was not very well accepted and the buyer was reluctant to accept those prices, especially those of the 2023 harvest. We will have to see if now, with higher prices and in this situation, they will accept them. It will also be necessary to see how very important countries such as China (which seemed to be somewhat more subdued in purchasing in the last few days) and India, whose important period for their Diwali purchases is coming to an end, react.
To all this, we must add what will actually happen with the harvest. Due to the delay, it is not yet known whether it will be what the estimates predicted, whether the insect damage and thus the serious defects are so high... the unknown quantity and condition of the crop still remains to be clarified. This also plays an important role commercially speaking.
Finally, we can say that the buyer/seller pulse continues. This was clearly seen at the Anuga fair, but there was no winner, the seller remained in his position until the end, as did the buyer. These data give a little more strength to the seller, but, will it be enough to knock down the buyer? will the buyer continue to be absent and let's see how long the seller can hold on? will this be the turning point to activate the market and start it to flow, typical of the dates we are in?
The Spanish almond market continues to experience a situation of apathy typical of summer months, not September/October. The seller is almost totally absent. This price level does not convince the field, the farmer, and therefore does not want to sell the almond. If the farmer does not want to sell it, the splitter cannot buy it and therefore cannot put it on the market. It is a chain in which one link has stopped. The farmer is looking for more attractive prices and not the low prices that have been experienced lately. But the buyer, as in the American market, has not been as active and receptive as to make him go up with joy. The market has been rising very slowly, with punctual operations, urgencies, local things and because the buyer has had no choice, at least it gives that feeling. It has not been a rise encouraged by a sufficient number of operations to think that it is something 100% solid, but by punctual operations. This means that the market has risen due to lack of supply, not demand. At least it has given that feeling. The feeling that if a lot of trucks come to the fore, they are not all going to be placed.
As we have said with the American, maybe this is a turning point and the demand accepts the situation posed by the supply and makes the market flow at a price that the supply comes out and operations are made with the joy of the dates in which we are. Or maybe not, and it is still positioned in its thinking of doing the minimum while waiting for lower prices... that is, the supply/demand pulse that, for now, seems to be won by the supply, although it is costing it quite a lot, to be honest.
Until now, the prices that were being considered were levels of 3.40/3.45 €/kg in owner communes without size guarantee, 3.55/3.65 €/kg in medium sizes, being the highest price in Guara/Vairo, 4.30/4.35 €/kg in high sizes with a supply bordering on non-existent and 3.15 €/kg in small sizes. As we can see, we are talking about sizes, not varieties per se. This year we are paying for the size, not the variety, except for marconas and larguetas, obviously. But the rest is all in the same bag. Maybe it is the Guara that stands out a little, but because it is a variety that is highly appreciated for export.
The organic on the other hand continues with a stable situation at levels of 5.90/6 € / kg depending on the amount of b/12 and phosphonic acid guaranteed.
Therefore, in summary, we have a Spanish market very paralyzed by the supply, inappropriate for the dates of campaign we have, looking for a rise in prices that makes the field to be comfortable, a rise which is occurring very very slowly because the buyer does not end up being active enough to carry it out happily and pay what the offer needs. In other words, the buyer/seller pulse continues without seeing a clear winner at the moment.
We hope our comments will be helpful.
Thank you very much.
