Before the preliminary estimate for the 2026 California harvest is released, along with the April shipment figures, we would like to provide a brief overview of the current situation.
With regard to California almonds, following the publication of TerraNova’s estimate of 2.67 million bushels, the US seller raised prices to around $3/lb immediately after the announcement; however, as the days following the announcement passed without significant buying interest, prices gradually settled at $2.95/lb. The difference between this price for a Std5% and an Npx 23/25, its highest-value export product, is $0.35–$0.40/lb. All products fall within this range. Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
The rise in prices in California, backed by other, less widely publicised estimates that have all come in at around 2.65–2.70 lbs, is due to the fact that there was a widespread belief in California that the harvest figure would be around 2.70 lbs, or at most 2.80 lbs (it was understood that the minimum would be 2.70 lbs), but now that estimates showing lower volumes have been published, this has enabled the American seller to raise prices and set the new crop at current price levels (where until now it had been $0.05–$0.10/lb lower). However, this has not resonated with the buyer. They do not understand the price rise, the seller’s bullish stance in the face of estimates that differ little from expectations, and above all, a market that was already struggling to move at pre-estimate prices of $2.85/lb; with the bullish market, it will move even less. In fact, since this latest rise, buyers in general have largely stayed on the sidelines. Activity is very low. Everyone is waiting for shipments and subjective estimates (farmers), with both buyers and sellers putting forward their own arguments.
As far as Spanish almonds are concerned, the market has remained virtually unchanged for months. As we have mentioned on previous occasions, the focus has been on maintaining stable prices; until recently, these were above or well above the US price, but following the latest rise, not only have they fallen in line with the US price, but they are now actually below it. However, whether because the price was previously not competitive with the American one or because buyers now generally do not accept these prices, activity has been and continues to be low or very low for some time. The focus is on stability at the expense of activity.
The seller hasn’t been particularly active either. Whether due to speculation over the shells, the ups and downs of the US market, or simply because there aren’t many almonds left, supplies have been trickling in as well.
As a result, the market has been sluggish for months, with prices remaining stable. Today, following the latest rise in the US, there have been attempts to push prices up slightly, but with little success, as demand was unwilling to accept even the previous prices.
So, everything is on hold, at least until we see the latest US estimates and April shipment figures. We’ll see how it all pans out.
As for organic produce, everything has come to a standstill. Demand has dropped significantly in the wake of the conflict in Iran; organic produce, particularly in the regions where it is mainly destined, is a product that, like other higher-priced goods, is severely affected by international conflicts. Sales have come to a standstill due to the severe frosts in the highlands of Granada, Almería and Castilla-La Mancha, the main organic-producing region, where there have been significant losses. There is talk of losses amounting to one-third of the total organic harvest, which was already a good one.
We would point out that, as regards the Spanish harvest, there has also been a subjective estimate agreed upon by a broad cross-section of our sector. This figure puts the 2026 Spanish harvest at 146,000 tonnes, an increase of 39% compared to the 105,000 tonnes currently projected for the 2025 harvest (which, initially, had been estimated to be considerably higher). The Portuguese harvest is estimated at approximately 30,000 tonnes. Consequently, the Iberian Peninsula would become the world’s second-largest producer, surpassing Australia’s estimated 166,000 tonnes, which, due to rain during the harvest, will ultimately be 10–15% lower (some more pessimistic estimates put the figure at 20–25% lower).
We hope this helps.
