The american Subjective Estimate for the 2026 harvest has been released, with the following result:
1.390.000 acres × 1.940 lb/acre = 2,70 Blbs
This result is very similar to what is expected for the current harvest. In fact, the report also states that for the current 2025 harvest, they estimate (a 1% increase in acreage and the same yield): 1,400,000 acres × 1,940 lb/acre = 2.72 billion pounds. Consequently, the next harvest in 2026 would be around 1% lower than the current 2025 harvest, which is very similar.
The area used is the same as that estimated on 12 May 2025, but at that time a yield of 2,010 lb/acre was estimated (3.5% higher than the current estimate), giving a total of 2.80 Blbs. Therefore, there was only a margin of error of 0.10 Blbs compared to what the final yield will be this year, which is acceptable given how things have gone.
It is estimated that this harvest will have a similar surplus, of around 500 million pounds, bringing the total harvest for 2026 to 3.2 billion pounds – as we have said, similar to the current harvest.
Terra Nova estimated a productive area of 1,340,000 acres with a yield of 1,985 lb/acre, resulting in 2.66 million pounds. A smaller area but a higher yield.
This estimate was derived from a subjective survey of around 500 almond growers conducted between 21 April and 6 May. It is a stratified random sample, grouped by farm size to ensure that all growers are represented proportionally.
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