We now have Terra Nova’s forecast for the 2026 harvest; this is arguably the most significant one, particularly this year as the July target has been removed, with the following result:
1.340.000 acres × 1.985 lb/acre = 2,66 Blbs
If we assume that the 2025 harvest will be around 2.70 million tonnes (1,400,000 acres × 1,930 lb/acre), this represents a decline of around 1.5%.
If we assume a surplus of around 500 million pounds, similar to the current figure—which is plausible if shipment volumes remain at similar levels—the available stock would be around 3.16 billion pounds.
The difference compared with Terra Nova’s estimate from last year, which stood at 2.80 million pounds, is that a larger area was estimated (1,360,000 acres, meaning the area has been reduced by 20,000 acres) and a higher yield of 2,060 pounds per acre.
Based on the area estimated by Land IQ, the harvest would amount to 2.75 million pounds (1,386,000 acres × 1,985 lb/acre).
To summarise:
– Area in 2025: 1,400,000 acres
– Estimated area (Land IQ 2026): 1,386,000 acres
– Estimated area of Terra Nova 2025: 1,380,000 acres
– Estimated area of Terra Nova 2026: 1,360,000 acres
– Yield 2025: 1,930 lb/acre
– Estimated yield for Terra Nova 2025: 2,060 lb/acre
– Estimated yield for Terra Nova 2026: 1,985 lb/acre
For readers who would like more detailed information, we have provided further details below, explaining how this figure was arrived at.
For the current 2025 harvest, we would point out that both Terra Nova and the subjective estimate stood at 2.80 million pounds, whilst the objective estimate was revised upwards to 3 million pounds. Despite this being a year in which the harvest was unclear until almost the very end – not so long ago there was talk of a harvest of 2.5 million pounds and Terra Nova’s estimate was being called into question (to the point of ruling out the objective estimate) – the margin of error ultimately stood at 100,000 pounds, which is not too significant given how things have turned out. For this reason, the report tells us, they have chosen to release it a little later than usual this year in order to be more accurate, particularly given the extra pressure this year.
One notable aspect was that, towards the end of 2025, a fog settled over the central valley and lingered for over a month – conditions that were exceptionally good and had not been seen for more than 40 years. This gave rise to a very positive outlook for the harvest. Flowering began slightly earlier than usual. The earliest varieties got off to a good start, with sunny days and suitable temperatures, leading to rapid flowering. Suddenly, conditions deteriorated, bringing cold weather and rain at the peak of the Nonpareil season, the predominant variety. Conditions improved in late February and the first half of March, and the post-flowering weather – also very important – brought sunny days, suggesting a very optimistic outlook for the 2026 harvest. However, the second half of March brought record-breaking heat, and optimism gave way to scepticism. April continued with unusual phenomena such as heavy rain and localised hail. In summary, before flowering the trees looked healthy and had excellent bud development, followed by unpredictable weather during flowering, the war in the Middle East, a drastic rise in fertiliser prices and, with it, the reluctance of many farmers to use the required amounts, and the hottest March on record…
All things considered, a consensus harvest estimate similar to this year’s—around 2.70 million tonnes—was reached in California.
It is important to bear in mind that a great deal can happen between this estimate and the actual harvest. Farmers’ decisions regarding the use of essential fertilisers due to the sharp rise in prices caused by the war in the Middle East, water usage, excessive heat that may affect fruit development, conditions during the harvest… there are many factors to consider.
We would like to remind you that we have already published the LAND IQ report (in cooperation with the Almond Board) on the 2026 production area, published on 23 April, which shows that the almond production area in California has fallen slightly to around 1.386 million acres, a modest decrease of 15,200 acres compared to the figure published in November 2025.
According to Land IQ, this decline is due to the removal of plantations, a lack of new plantations and better identification of abandoned farms, although the figure may still be slightly higher than the actual productive area.
Terra Nova estimates a smaller area of 1,340,000 acres, which would represent a reduction of 20,000 acres compared with their own estimate from last year.
It seems that the northern region is the worst affected and where the situation is most severe. The central region is considered to be in a similar situation, or slightly worse than in 2025, with the disparity between the east and west being the most significant factor. The same could be said of the southern region.
TerraNova’s estimated yield is 1,985 lb/acre, which means that, for yet another year, we will not exceed 2,000 lb/acre; the last time this was achieved was in 2021, with a yield of 2,220 lb/acre. The yields for recent years are shown below:
2016 – 2,210 lb/acre
2017 – 2,200 lb/acre
2018 – 2,090 lb/acre
2019 – 2,170 lb/acre
2020 – 2,490 lb/acre
2021 – 2,220 lb/acre
2022 – 1,900 lb/acre
2023 – 1,780 lb/acre
2024 – 1,960 lb/acre
2025 – 1,930 lb/acre
Average for the last 10 years: 2,095 lb/acre
Average over the last 5 years: 1,960 lb/acre
This begs the question: what has happened in recent years to prevent yields from exceeding the previous 2,000 lb/acre? Some possible explanations might be:
– The reduction in the use of fertilisers and other products between 2021 and 2024 due to low almond prices, a trend that continues today, as we have mentioned, due to the sharp rise in product prices.
– The shift in cultivated land towards less productive areas. Traditionally highly productive areas in the south are being replaced by less productive areas in the centre and north. Between 2016 and 2020, 20% of new cultivated land was planted in the north, 30% in the centre and 50% in the south. Between 2022 and 2023, 26% were in the north, 41% in the centre and only 33% in the south. In other words, the central and northern regions have absorbed the decline in the south.
– The SGMA’s water regulations have accelerated the removal of orchards in areas that relied heavily on groundwater pumping, and these are our highest-yielding orchards. These orchards are not being replaced with replanted almond trees, but with limited permanent pistachio plantations, temporary row crops, or even solar panels that generate rental income and do not consume water. This trend is likely to continue until the SGMA’s requirements for restricted groundwater pumping are met.
– The output from ‘non-productive’ vegetable gardens has fallen sharply over the last five years.
We hope our comments will help.
