We already have the estimate offered by Terranova, the first one, let's say of greater impact, with the following result:
1.360.000 acres × 2.185 lb/acre = 2,97 Blbs
If we assume a final entry this current crop 2023 of 2.47 Blbs, we are talking about an increase of just over 20%.
If we consider a surplus of 500 Mlbs, we would have an available of around 3.47 Blbs. This year 2023 we will have around 3.27 Blbs with the surplus, so we are talking about +6% of the total.
To arrive at this estimate, the following data are provided:
- Flowering conditions have been near perfect, with ample water availability, but more and more acres are being pulled, large production companies that have recently gone belly up leaving fields abandoned as well as the treatment of fields due to low prices of the latter have caused less care in the fields.
- It has been possible to observe an important advance in the harvest with respect to the last years and for this reason it has seemed easier to make a more accurate estimate.
- The error in the estimation of the current 2023 crop is that they made a mistake in the northern part of the valley where this year they have taken more time so that this does not happen again.
- Many fruits have already fallen to the ground. Some think it is due to a bumper crop, that the tree is not able to pull it all through and has to purge to survive. Others think that because of the cutbacks in tree treatments due to low prices in recent years, have caused a precarious situation for many growers as well as the disappearance of others. Therefore, a less cared for tree, more tired, is not able to get ahead what it could get if it were in optimal conditions and throws to the ground more than it should, as survival.
- Some think the 2024 crop should be around 3/3.10 Blbs due to near perfect flowering conditions. Others think it should be no more than 2.80/2.90 blbs due to the precariousness of many growers and the lack of care this brings to the trees. There are two sides, two thoughts, but the reality is much more complex.
- Where there is some consensus is in the productive area, which will be 1.36 million acres, a decrease for the first time in years, with respect to the 1.375/1.38 million acres considered for this 2023 harvest. They also highlight the migration of many productive areas to the northern and eastern part of the valley, an area with greater water availability security but traditionally less productive than those in the south and west of the valley.
- It is noted that there are many abandoned fields, deteriorated to a greater or lesser extent or some that will be abandoned that will not be harvested, some even in previous years were considered abandoned but due to the good water conditions this year they look very good despite being abandoned. All of them enter or are part of the estimate and the productive area, when in reality many will not be harvested. Another reason why making an estimate is complicated.
- The fields that were very good last year are somewhat worse this year in some areas, but the less well cared for and abandoned fields in the western zone are in very good condition. The north looks like an expanding area that will produce a record crop.
- Calibers are more stable and compensated, especially with respect to the unevenness of the current 2023 crop.
- Therefore, the estimated yield is 2,185 lb/acre. Slightly higher than the 10-year average of 2,107 lb/acre but 12% less than the 2020 record of 2,490 lb/acre. In fact it is close to the 2200/2220 lb/acre good yields of previous years and far from last year's 1,780 lb/acre.
- The impact it has on the market depends on what has been agreed in the market initially and this year has been a bit uncertain. For some it is more than expected, for others it is not, but it is not as much as the large yield obtained in 2020, the largest in history, because of the aforementioned. This is not a record crop. The most encouraging thing is that in the current harvest we have managed to reduce the Carryin to around 500 Mlbs, a more normal and bearable number, easier to handle, which will make the harvest linkage easier. In the end, with the estimated harvest, we are talking about, together with the carryin, no more than 6% more available than the present crop.
Thanks
