We will now analyze the latest published report on U.S. shipments for the month of MARCH 2024
The shipments figure is 237.04 Mlbs (-15.7%), the fourth highest March figure ever, but still short of last year's record of 281.07 Mlbs.
Regarding sales for the month we have a figure of 181.67 Mlbs, being last year 143.60 Mlbs (abnormally low figure), which means a +26.51% of sales in the month. This is the third best sales figure for the month of March, after the 2020 and 2021 crop.
Export shipments amounted to 174.59 Mlbs (-18.7%). Domestic shipments amounted to 62.45 Mlbs (-6.0%).
Regarding the crop, we have an inflow of 2,437.32 Mlbs (-4.07%). However, in the total harvest, adding carryin (800.29 Mlbs (-4.36%)), we have 3,188.86 Mlbs (-4.15%). Last year, from March until the end of harvest 30.32 Mlbs came in. Therefore, if something similar happens this year, we will end up with a crop inflow of 2,467.64 Mlbs (about 2.47 Blbs).
Regarding the sold and not shipped we have a total of 575.53 Mlbs (-11.08%). Shelled would be, with respect to domestic, 254.07 Mlbs (-12.37%) and export 321.46 Mlbs (-10.03%).
This situation would leave a total of 774.49 Mlbs (-12.11%) unsold (inventory).
With this data we can see that we have sold overall 2,414.38 Mlbs, -1.28% compared to last year when we had sold 2,445.64 Mlbs. This means that we have sold more than last year at this time in equal harvest (remember total available harvest -4.15%). That is, with this data, right now, we would have approximately 2.87% more sold than last year, if we had the same almonds available. Assuming that finally the crop input would remain at 2.47 Blbs, which would make a total available of 3.22 Blbs, we would have sold approximately 97% of the crop input and approximately 75% of the total available.
Regarding the destination of shipments, countries such as Canada (similar), South Korea, Netherlands (strong increase), United Kingdom (strong increase), Turkey (strong increase) and Morocco (very similar) stand out positively. On the negative side are important countries such as China (very strong decline), Japan, India (strong decline), France, Germany (strong decline), Italy (strong decline), Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (strong decline). In Spain, the situation has been negative, with 19.60 Mlbs this month compared to 21.05 Mlbs the previous year (-6.89%). In total so far this year we have a total of 134.50 Mlbs this year against 136.51 Mlbs last year (-1.47%). In Europe this month 64.57 Mlbs for 70.84 Mlbs last year (-8.85%). In total so far this crop year we have a figure of 447.87 Mlbs this year for 424.34 Mlbs last year (+5.54%).
In total, this crop has been shipped +2.25% compared to last year. Of all that has been shipped, the American continent (excluding the USA) represents 5%. The Asian continent (excluding the Middle East) represents 29%. The European continent accounted for 24%. The African continent + Middle East 16%. Finally, the domestic market (USA) represents 26%.
We can observe downward factors such as the negative shipments of this month, which is usually the most commonly recognized data, the forward sales (sold not shipped) that continue to be low and deficient compared to last year, in fact, they have decreased compared to February. But on the other hand, it seems normal in a situation of lower availability and higher number of shipments in total since the harvest began (more is being sold for soon than for the long term), but this section includes not only future sales for this harvest, but also for the next one, which is expected to be good, at least higher than the current one.
We can also observe bullish factors, such as the good monthly sales figure compared to last year, which should mean decent shipments to come. Also that the crop is more in values of 2.47 Blbs than the 2.50/2.60 Blbs that not so long ago was considered, or also that there is currently a situation of higher overall sales with respect to the available crop than last year. In other words, if this crop were the same as last year, more would be sold by now, as we have already mentioned. Another bullish factor is that the surplus is expected to be around 500 Mlbs, we will see how the rest of the crop evolves, without ruling out the possibility that not everything goes as well as expected and there will be some more left. What is certain is that it will reduce the surplus quite a lot which generates a lot of tranquility and comfort for the harvest linkage.
However, the data provided by this report has not impacted the market to any great extent. The data that matters most now seems to be the coming harvest, which, as we have already mentioned in previous reports, is expected to be good. This is what has held back the price rise and has led to a rather bearish market. In fact, this has been the case this past month. A seller holding the market and a buyer pushing down. Speaking of a 5% Std, a buyer with intentions of reaching $1.60/lb new crop 2024 and $1.65/lb current crop and a seller not wanting to go below $1.65/lb new crop and $1.70/lb current crop. Just after shipments, where the seller has kept the good part of these shipments and keeps trying to maintain prices and the buyer keeps the bad part and pushing downwards, it has been possible to observe a greater amount of supply than demand, a feeling that the seller agrees to the prices previously commented by the buyer and it is the latter who now does not want to. In other words, current crop supply has appeared at $1.65/lb, the price sought by the buyer a few days ago, and he has not wanted to pay it.
The reality is that everything revolves around the upcoming harvest. The buyer considers that the situation is very favorable and when everything is confirmed the price will take a downward trend. And this is how the last month has gone by, with the typical buyer/seller fight, each one with their own arguments, giving rise to a diffuse market, with a lot of speculation and in which both sides try to defend their position. However, it seems, at least for now, that the battle is being won by the buyer, hence a market that breathes that if anything happens it is more likely to go down than up, based on the data we have today. With all these ingredients, the publication of the Terranova estimate appears, which we will discuss in a separate report, where the market again threatens to undergo some change. We invite you to read our report on this subject and thus follow the market progression and its possible future situation.
As for Spanish almonds, the situation of lack of activity that we have been commenting lately continues. Since the market changed its trend and went downwards, the number of Spanish almond operations has decreased quite a lot and we are seeing very punctual movements, quite irregular and sometimes without a clear progression (two days nothing is done and the next day something is done that does not fit with what has been done or with what is considered to be the market), all due to a market based on punctual and independent operations one from the other. Depending on the variety, caliber, delivery or sometimes specific situation of the buyer/seller, one sees some prices or others that, we repeat, sometimes, are not related.
If we talk about more economical products (single varietal in low caliber, chunks or proprietary commune with very low caliber) the supply increases notably and it is the demand that is not appreciated at a clear price. That is to say, a clear situation of more supply than demand. But if we go to medium and high calibers or specific varieties in these calibers the situation is of a much more moderate supply and a demand that is more visible. That is to say, a situation that seems to be of little supply and little demand, where the price tries to hold more, although it is pushed by the general somewhat bearish situation.
Therefore, we are still facing a situation of low activity, of not knowing in many occasions what the market prices are, we are based on some punctual operation that has been heard, a very diffuse situation. To sum it up, a situation where what we want to sell we do not want to buy and what we want to buy we do not want to sell.
In the meantime, time goes on, closer and closer to summer, where we all know that the activity decreases notably, there is possibly still a lot of almonds to be sold and it seems that the coming harvest is on the right track. Everything has gone well, although it is true that we cannot take anything for granted yet, low temperatures can still appear, but the flowering has been good, it has rained more than expected in most of the producing areas, although not in all of them because there are areas where drought is still a real problem. But in general, with what we have today, the coming harvest situation should be better than the current one. Then the quality and size will also be better. Hopefully everything will continue to be like this for the good of all.
As for prices, based on not too many operations, it is estimated that the market can be around levels of 3.10 €/kg in the piece, 3.40 €/kg in the b/12, 3.60 €/kg the owner with little size as we have this year, 3.90 €/kg medium size 12/14 and then 4.65/4.75 €/kg the high size s/14, all depending on the variety, because for example in guara/vairo, as all the campaign, the availability is low and the prices are higher. If we go to more specific varieties, such as soletas, marconas or larguetas, the medium and high size is highly valued, but the supply has disappeared. In fact, few operations are known to know even their fair market price.
As for the organic almond, stability and low activity continues, but unlike the conventional, there is comfort on the buying and selling side. For now it seems to flow comfortably and there is no nervousness on either side. This generates a certain stability in the market, where the price has varied very little since the harvest began.
Finally, these are convulsive dates, to be very attentive to what happens with the progress of the new crop and to be aware that the estimates that are coming out, especially in California, can sometimes cause big changes in the market. When the price is low, as we are now, the changes should not be high as other times we have seen with higher or much higher prices, but there may be changes. It is time to be very up to date with what is happening and we still think that time is passing and the Spanish almond should start to move and get out of the situation of immobility. Otherwise, maybe when we get there, it will already be too late. Now with the publication of Terranova, we must be attentive to how the market is in California and how it will influence the Spanish almond.
We hope our comments will help.
Thank you very much.
