The Subjective Estimate has been released with the following result:
1.390.000 acres × 2.010 lb/acre = 2,80 Blbs
This result is about +3/3.5% more than the present crop, about 2.70 Blbs. An area of 1,390,000 acres has been taken, 10,000 acres more than the estimate of area produced for 2024. Yield is 2,010 Blbs/acre, 30 Blbs more than last year's yield of 1,980 Blbs/acre.
It is estimated to have a similar surplus this harvest, around 500 Mlbs, which would bring us to a total of 3.30 Blbs, as we have said, +3/3.5% more than the current harvest.
Terra Nova estimated a productive area of 1,360,000 acres with a yield of 2,060 lb/acre, giving the same result of 2.80 Blbs. Less area for more production with the same result.
This subjective production figure is based on a survey of a sample of 500 almond growers from 21 April to 7 May. The 2025 almond bloom began the first week of February in the Sacramento Valley and peaked mid-month. Weather during the bloom varied across the state, with storms bringing heavy rain, wind and hail. Crop development in the San Joaquin Valley was slower than normal due to cold temperatures and fewer bee flight hours. However, conditions improved in early March with warm temperatures that accelerated crop progress through the end of flowering. There were reports of significantly lower yields in the Nonpareil variety due to an overall lighter flower set than its pollinators. The impact on orchards of the intense summer heat in 2024 continues to be evaluated. Growers are actively watering, fertilising and treating their orchards for pests and diseases. Water is not expected to be a problem this year.
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