We have just received the publication of the objective estimate for the next harvest 2025 prepared by the Department of Agriculture. The result is as follows:
1.390.000 acres × 2.160 lb/acre = 3 Blbs
With this figure we would have a total harvest of 3.50/3.55 Blbs (adding the surplus that is estimated to be around 500/550 Mlbs). The current harvest we have a total (with the surplus) of 3.16 Blbs. We would be talking about +10/12%. In other words, we would have more available than in the current campaign that we have just finished.
Thinking back, the subjective estimate (farmers) was 2.80 Blbs and Newfoundland was the same, 2.80 Blbs. This objective estimate would be +7% more than both. The reason is higher yield than the subjective (estimated 2,010 lb/acre) and higher area and yield than Newfoundland (1,360,000 acres × 2,060 lb/acre).
We recall that last year for the current crop 2024 the objective estimate was 2.80 Blbs and finally the final crop input will be around 2.71 Blbs. We are talking about a difference of only -3% with respect to the final result, which was quite accurate.
This situation is likely to generate a bearish situation.
Thank you very much.
