MOST IMPORTANT RESULTS SEPTEMBER 2024 SHIPMENTS:
- Shipments: 213.56 Mlbs (-1.9%)
- September sales: 273.38 Mlbs (+1.3%)
- Total sales to date: 1,049.24 Mlbs (-4.9%)
– Carryin: 502,65 Mlbs (-37,2%)
- Crop intake: 1,035.04 Mlbs (+65.5%)
- Total available quantity (harvest + surplus harvest 23): 1,516.99 Mlbs (+7.4%)
- Total sold unshipped: 667.39 Mlbs (-1.0%)
- Total unsold: 467.75 Mlbs (+51.2%)
- Shipments to Spain in September: 7.09 Mlbs (-26.0%) (overall -38%)
- Shipments to Europe in September: 30.90 Mlbs (-24.9%) (overall -34%)
SHIPMENT AND MARKET ANALYSIS
The results obtained in the publication of shipments have thrown up a few surprises and some important points can be made. Firstly, the figure for shipments has been as expected, somewhat similar to the previous year. It is worth noting that, in total, so far this crop year, 11.1% less than last year has been shipped. This month, important destinations such as Europe in general, especially Spain and Germany, Canada, India and North Africa have been affected. The Asian countries have shown very similar values and those that have really presented very good shipment values have been Turkey and the Middle East.
Secondly, we observe a rather good crop entry. In fact, it is the third best crop entry in September in history. There is still a long way to go before conclusions can be drawn and we cannot take this data as definitive for estimating a final total harvest, but based on the data we have at the moment, it is hard to believe that the final harvest will be much lower than the estimated 2.8 Blbs. In fact, if we make a calculation of the last 10 years, not counting last year, which was atypical and not at all normal, as the crop was harvested very late due to the rains in August, and we observe the highest crop entry and the lowest entry in September of these 10 years, extrapolated to what we have obtained this September, we get a minimum harvest of 2.75 Blbs and a maximum harvest of 2.90 Blbs. In other words, we are very likely to obtain a harvest very similar to that estimated in July. We have said before that this is the third best September crop entry in history, just as the estimate of 2.8 Blbs would be the third best crop in history. But as we have said before, there are still many months to go and this figure may be a little early to say, but it is what we have for now with the data we have. We will see in the next shipments if this changes.
Thirdly, the sales figures for September. In our opinion, this figure is the most surprising because it is not good, but stratospheric. We have not seen a similar monthly sales level since last August and September 2023 and only surpassed by last January 2023, where prices were much lower, verging on the lowest in recent years, and where there was a worldwide demand and therefore a very clear latent activity, at least from Europe. We have qualified this figure as surprising because this excellent number of sales has been achieved without having Europe active, and it is something incredible because we remember that Europe represents around 25% of American sales. This is not just any market. Other markets such as India, a very short-term buyer for its Diwali, shipments have been worse than last year, so it must not have been the destination that has pulled the cart. Then forward sales are also no better than last year. The Middle East does seem to be very active, but it does much more to reach that number. All in all, it is commendable to have such good sales figures in the absence of some of the main markets, at least apparently.
What is clear is that these figures suggest that the market will continue to be a continuation of the trend and that it will continue to focus on firm prices. It would not make sense to bring the market down with prices more than 40% higher than last year and only selling less than 5%. For the time being, the accounts are in order. The only doubt remains that all this is based on the premise of a bad harvest, or at least worse than expected, and if it finally becomes clear that this is not the case, what will happen? We do not know, but for now, despite the fact that there are markets that are very much on standby and holding their ground, very up to date and without taking positions, such as the European market, the American seller is saving the situation very decently (according to the data we have) and with much better prices than last year. For the time being, there would be no reason to think about a bear market unless this situation of a good level of sales changes, especially now that we are entering November/December, months when the European, Asian and Muslim markets tend to start to position themselves in their purchases. We will see what happens.
Therefore, as we have said, the market has changed absolutely nothing since the publication of shipments and we continue with similar prices of 2.35/2.40 $/lb in Std 5%, a moderate supply and a European demand close to zero. Nothing new since the market started to rise at the end of May, very, very low activity bordering on nil. Speaking of the European market.
Regarding Spanish almonds, it continues to be a real option for all those mainly European buyers, which is the vast majority, who do not take positions because they do not trust the market and make purchases for prompt delivery of just what they need. No more and no less. In addition to all this, Spanish prices are very competitive with respect to American prices, which makes it even more attractive, especially for those markets that are closed to buying California almonds because of their price and who see Spanish almonds as a real and more economical option.
It should be noted that the Spanish almond business is not crazy. Again we repeat that the general buyer buys just enough and what is necessary and all for prompt delivery. Nothing more. Occasionally, there is someone who takes a small position for the medium/long term and does so with Spanish almonds for their price, but this is the least of it. On the other hand, Spanish sellers are very busy for the short term, and it is rare that they do not have a full month's work ahead of them. It is normal, almost all the sales that come in are for the short term.
This situation is what has caused the Spanish company to raise its price very gradually in recent weeks. It is having a hard time raising the price because, as we have said, demand is not crazy, it appears and disappears, it is ephemeral, sporadic and sufficient to carry out operations more or less happily, but fundamentally all for very soon. When the time comes that someone appears, needs something for very soon, finds that all the sellers are very busy and cannot attend to him, he has no choice but to motivate this potential seller by paying something more. If you want them to fit into your busy schedule, you have to pay for it. And when this happens, it is when the market is able to rise, little by little. In fact, from the beginning of September until today, the market has risen just +0.30/0.40 €/kg. Very little if we compare it with the price of the American origin.
But this season, Spanish almonds are presenting themselves as a real option and are even making their way into some markets that were not familiar with them or at least did not fundamentally work with them. Spanish origin is taking advantage of the situation.
Organic almonds, in spite of what has been said about conventional almonds, are in a completely opposite situation. There is no way of starting up activity and little by little it is approaching the price of conventional almonds. In fact, there is an unusual differential between the two. Many say it is the result of organic at €10/kg not so long ago, which caused it to lose a lot of market share. Others say that this is a cyclical situation. Be that as it may, the activity is very, very low and to carry out an organic operation is quite a milestone. It is not an easy task.
We hope our comments will help.
Thanks
