MOST IMPORTANT SHIPMENT RESULTS AUGUST 2024:
- Shipments: 168.28 Mlbs (-20.6%)
- August sales: 159.35 Mlbs (-37.8%)
- Total sales to date: 775.86 Mlbs (-7.0%)
– Carryin: 502,65 Mlbs (-37,2%)
- Crop intake: 290.10 Mlbs (+313.7%)
- Total available quantity (harvest + surplus harvest 23): 786.94 Mlbs (-9.4%)
- Total sold unshipped: 607.58 Mlbs (-2.3%)
- Total unsold: 11.08 Mlbs (-68.4%)
- Shipments to Spain: 10.05 Mlbs (-43.9%)
– Shipments to Europe: 48,26 Mlbs (-40,0%)
A low level of shipments was already expected. Last year, due to the rains in August, harvesting was very late and this year, despite also being somewhat later than normal, it has been noticed that the crop has been coming in later. However, last year there was much more almonds from the previous harvest to be shipped than this year and this difference has not been made up for by the earlier arrival of this year's new crop. Therefore, it was known that shipments were going to be negative. Last year, a lot of earlier crop was shipped, but this year there was not as much. Perhaps it was a surprise that they were so negative.
Monthly sales have not been good. It was also known that they were going to be negative compared to last year, as they were spectacular, but perhaps not so negative. It had already been noticed, especially in the European market, that August has been at a standstill at higher prices and, well, it seems that this standstill has been somewhat generalised. We can see that the bulk of shipments are to be found in European countries (which has slowed down) and above all in India (which seems to have done better than last year), but it has not been better in general judging by the data.
If we look at this report, we can draw bearish conclusions and it represents the general standstill of the market, except for countries such as India, a big consumer of Non Pareil and Independence, which is the variety that is being harvested at the moment. The rest are still to be picked or are just starting to be picked.
However, the market has been bullish. The reason comes from the low yields we are told from California on the entry of Non Pareil across the board in the Valley and with it a possible crop reduction from the objective estimate of 2.8 Blbs. In addition, they also tell us that sales of Non Pareil, especially in India, are very good at these higher prices (perhaps we will see this more clearly in the September shipment report), unlike the rest of the varieties, where sales are scarce but are being left to one side for now, as they are not being picked up yet. Hence, in a European market where Non Pareil is a minority variety, the market is perceived to be at a standstill. This standstill is caused by both sides, by the supply, which is scarce and focused on other markets, and by the demand, at least for the moment, which is not ready to pay these prices, always speaking in a generalised way.
After the publication of the report, the market has not changed much. The supply side, despite the data, is postulating that its strong position will not change much, as the reason for the strength has nothing to do with these data and is therefore calm. Demand, especially in Europe, is likely to hold back even more in view of this situation. For the time being, we can speak of prices similar to those before shipments and perhaps this will stop the bullish situation and stabilise prices a little. Or who knows if, in spite of this, the upward progression will continue or if there will be a bearish turnaround. It seems more likely that the bullish outlook will slow down and enter a more stable phase. We shall see.
Spanish almonds, on the other hand, with prices very much differentiated downwards with respect to American almonds, remain more or less stable, awaiting a rise that has not quite arrived, provoked by a demand that is expected to come with force but has not yet appeared as it should. It's a ‘I want to, I must and I can't’ situation. We know that it should go up judging by the American prices but it is not quite there yet.
In the meantime, a market with very few operations in spite of the dates where it has been possible to see this week a rise of at least 0.10 €/kg in prices. For many a meagre rise for American prices. But despite the fact that supply is withdrawing and pushing upwards, the hunger, desire or voracity that demand should have at this time of year is lacking.
We think that there is a demand that is coming and that will make the Spanish market operate in line with the dates. We do not know if we are right, but time will tell.
We hope our comments will help.
Thanks
