- Shipments: 179.43 Mlbs (-3.9%)
- July sales: 69.92 Mlbs (-35.6%)
- New crop 2024 sales for July: 107.73 Mlbs (+30.6%)
- Total year to date sales: 2,929.49 Mlbs (-0.3%)
- Total sales new crop 2024: 379.01 Mlbs (+85.0%)
- Crop intake: 2,446.04 Mlbs (-4.9%)
- Total quantity available (harvest + surplus harvest 22): 3,197.41 Mlbs (-4.7%).
– Carryin: around 500 Mlbs (-37,5%)
- Total sold unshipped: 237.51 Mlbs (-36.3)
- Total unsold: 267.92 Mlbs (-36.1%)
- Shipments to Spain: 14.58 Mlbs (-2.5%)
- Shipments to Europe: 48.26 Mlbs (-8.2%)
Unexpected result in terms of shipments, which were expected to be better and expected in terms of sales. In general terms, we can see that sales have been the same as last year with less quantity available, which is why the surplus has been reduced. Because of this situation, added to the good sales of new crop compared to last year, which if you look at previous years there are better and worse years depending on whether priority was given to the new or the old crop depending on the surplus, the seller has reached the end with the feeling of having done his homework. Because of this, coupled with a subjective estimate of a lower than expected new crop, the price has been rising since the second part of May until now, where we have had a few weeks of some stability, despite the low activity and the holiday dates, it is difficult to draw conclusions.
As we can see, there is much less to be shipped (surplus) and sold of the ending crop compared to last year. Therefore, the next shipments will be more with new crop than with old crop due to this situation.
Another fact to keep in mind is, before the price increase, the average price since the beginning of the harvest was $1.60/1.65/lb in Std 5%. If we look at May shipments, this average price corresponds to approximately 2.70 Blbs of the crop. In other words, 85% of the crop has been sold at average prices of $1.60/1.65/lb and the other 15% at already higher prices. This means that a good part of what has been shipped was at lower prices.
According to these May shipments, approximately 170 Mlbs of new crop were also sold at prices of $1.60/1.65/lb. If a total of 379 Mlbs of new crop has been sold so far, this means that the price increase has affected approximately 209 Mlbs. In short, 45% of the new crop sold before the price increase was sold at a very different price than after the increase, which has represented approximately 55% for the time being.
Therefore, the price increase has affected, for now, 55% of new crop sales and only 15% of the crop ending 2023.
We will see if these data change the market. A priori, it is possible to think that if something happens, it should not be bullish, but it could also be that the market continues with little activity until we enter the campaign where, if this continues, the buyer's supply level or the seller's patience will be measured. Another option is for the market to pull back a little in search of some more activity... what seems less likely is a bullish situation. A continuation or somewhat bearish situation is more likely. We will see in the coming days.
As for Spanish almonds, as with American almonds, there is very little activity and prices continue with the same trend. Stable market within the little activity. It is difficult to position it or to know exactly where it is. Some varieties such as marconas, belonas or larguetas have been without reliable references for a long time. In other words, the market needs some more activity to know exactly where we are. In the meantime, some very scarce operations are being carried out.
The organic market, on the other hand, is even more inactive than the conventional one. It is difficult to remember the last known reference.
We hope this helps.
Thanks
