Last Tuesday we had the publication of the last report about the American shipments of the last month of Septiembre 2021.
The number of shipments is 227.64 Mlbs (-12.77%), lower than the figure for September last year with 260.97 Mlbs, which was a record figure.
Regarding the sales of the month we have a data of 232.09 Mlbs, being 298.09 Mlbs last year, which means -28.44% of sales in the month of September.
Export shipments have been 163.52 Mlbs (-17.16%). The domestic ones have been 64.12 Mlbs (+ 0.85%), being these a record number.
Regarding the harvest, we have an entry of 1,068.40 Mlbs (+ 1.52%) (we remember that last August this figure was + 14.49%), assuming a total harvest available with carryin of 1,655.16 Mlbs (+ 11.72%) (we remember that last August this figure was + 27.43%). We observe how the harvest entry is approaching that of last year, which, according to objective harvest data, will be lower by around -10/12%.
The advance of the entrance of the harvest has caused that last August and this month of September the harvest is higher but this is supposed to be corrected until it is lower in the percentages discussed over the months, assuming that they are fulfilled. the objective harvest data.
Regarding what was sold and not shipped, we have a total of 720.69 Mlbs (-34.05%). Shelling would be, with respect to domestic, 304.15 Mlbs (-28.64%) and exports 416.54 Mlbs (-37.50%).
With these data, they would have a total of 499.48 Mlbs (+ 865.85%) unsold (inventory). This is because last year, at this point, they had more sold (shipped and committed) than the total availability of harvest, which is not the case now. Last year they had 65.22 Mlbs more sold than was available, this year there are 499.48 Mlbs available without selling.
With these data we can see that 1.16 Blbs have been sold in general, -25.28% from last year. In the average of shipments of what we have so far (August and September), we have a -4.19%. That is, assuming a decrease in harvest this year of 10/12% as the objective estimate says and having fewer sales by -25% as we see at the moment, there is 13/15% less sold than last year compared to each one's harvest input.
Regarding the destination of shipments, countries such as Canada, China, Japan and Morocco stand out positively. On the negative side, there are important countries such as South Korea, Vietnam, India, Germany, France (strong decrease), Italy, Greece (strong decrease), Holland, Israel (very strong decrease), Turkey (very strong decrease), Arabia Saudi (strong drop) or United Arab Emirates. In Spain the situation has been negative, with 13.42 Mlbs this month compared to 15.12 Mlbs the previous year (-11.24%). The total harvest has been exported the same as last year. In Europe in general, 37.49 Mlbs this month compared to 50.72 Mlbs the previous year (-26.08%). In total harvest, -7% has been exported to Europe than last.
These data leave fundamentally bearish sensations in all senses. It is true that it has been a good month of shipments, if it were not for September of last year, these shipments would have been a record with a considerable advantage, but now we are entering a few months compared to last year (all months were record except August and September) is going to be harmed in the comparison. As last year when compared with the previous one, the figures were dizzying, now it happens, on the contrary, although they are traditionally good data. In other words, we are comparing to a record last year in every way, although good data comes out, it will hardly be possible to surpass those of last year as we have less harvest this year.
Making a very simple summary, if you have this year, according to an objective estimate, 10/12% less harvest, everything that is higher than that data in terms of shipments will be more carryin than this year (608.24 Mlbs) (without boarding) for the next harvest. For example, if at the end of the harvest a total of -17% has been shipped and finally the harvest is -10%, there will be 7% less shipped and higher carryin than the previous harvest.
Then the future sales (committed) are quite poor and the sales for the month have been bad. This has been seen over the days due to the low activity, not only this month, but the previous ones.
Therefore, in recent weeks, it could already be deduced that the bullish data was not going to be, judging by the decline in prices preparing this situation. The buyer has been showing all this time quite supplied and unattractive for the purchase, being little in favor of the existing price situation. The seller has endured as long as he can until the buying pressure has been able to with him and the previous positive data have no longer been able to hide what was happening. Given the lack of activity, the market has had no choice but to correct. It is also important to point out that it has had an important factor, especially in Europe, the sales of second hands or those containers shipped without selling, to cover specific needs for prompt deliveries or those containers that arrive late.
The situation after August shipments, in terms of prices, was around 2.45/2.50$/lb always speaking of std 5%. The market was receding mainly in recent days until it reached around $2.30/lb.
But after shipments we have seen that the decrease has reached 2.15/2.20$/lb. It is true that the change has cushioned this decrease in € and that this decrease has been seen above all in small and medium sizes. The larger sizes have been less affected due to the possible less availability of them.
On the part of the Spanish almond, it has endured stable prices until the end, in fact we have moved at prices of € 4.50/4.60/kg (depending on the variety) for several weeks. It is true that lately it was seen that, especially in exports, these prices did not match the buying idea and caused a lack of activity, but the little supply that came out was solved domestically.
However, as a result of shipments and the continued American descent, the Spanish has had no choice but to back down. As is normal when the market looks for your site, some downward operations have been heard, some very different from each other, but what is clear is that we are entering a phase in which the buyer will wait to see where this is (a seemingly unhurried buyer) and the seller will try to put up with what he can. Inshell activity may stop. Until recently, operations close to the price of shelled Almond were being heard and now overnight trying to lower it is going to take a little time, therefore, until the new situation is assimilated, if it comes to stay, the field will it's going to take a few days. We will see where the price is finally.
In varieties such as marcona and largueta, this situation does not seem to affect it. The amount of marcona for example is limited and is being offered at increasingly bullish and difficult-to-find levels.
Organic for its part, the offer, according to the rise of the field, proposes increasingly higher price levels despite the little activity. It is difficult for the buyer to assume these prices and only goes out to buy the one that needs it, little more. So there is very, very little activity.
We hope this helps.
Thank you very much.
