American Shipments October 2022

We have the publication of the last report about the American shipments of the last month of OCTOBER 2022.

The figure of shipments is 214.61 Mlbs (-1.1%), being the figure of October last year 214.61 Mlbs. The third lowest in the last 10 years.

Respecto las ventas del mes tenemos un dato de 243,48 Mlbs, siendo el año pasado de 244,33 Mlbs, lo que significa un -0,35% de ventas en el mes de Octubre.

The export shipments have been 149.03 Mlbs (-1.9%). Domestic shipments have been 65.58 Mlbs (+0.6%).

Regarding the harvest, we have an entry of 1,656.93 Mlbs (-7.65%). However, in the total harvest, adding the carryin (836.81 Mlbs (+37.60%)), we have 2,460.60 Mlbs (+3.98%). If this figure remains constant, we will end up with a total harvest of around 2.68 Blbs, similar to the estimate of 2.60 Blbs that is being considered.

In terms of what is sold and not shipped, we have a total of 694.83 Mlbs (-7.10%). The shelled, compared to domestic, would be 329.96 Mlbs (-4.01%) and the exported 364.87 Mlbs (-9.73%).

With this situation, a total of 1,134.47 Mlbs (+17.39%) would remain unsold (carrying).

With this data we can see that 1,326.12 Mlbs have been sold in general, -5.28% compared to last year, when 1,400.02 Mlbs were sold.

Regarding the destination of the shipments, countries such as India, Germany, Estonia (strong increase), Saudi Arabia and Morocco (very strong increase) stand out positively. On the negative side, important countries such as Canada, China (strong fall), Japan, South Korea (strong fall), France, Italy, Holland, the United Kingdom (strong fall), Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. In Spain, the situation has been positive, with 12.55 Mlbs this month compared to 10.15 Mlbs the previous year (+23.65%). In total, 46.08 Mlbs of crop has been exported this year and last year 40.68 Mlbs (+13.27%). In Europe in general 37.19 Mlbs this month against 36.25 Mlbs last year (+2.59%). The total crop has been exported to Europe +5.23% more than last crop.

With these data we can see that the month of October has been quite decently defended, especially in the face of the apathy that can be observed in such an important market as Europe. It is perhaps important to point out that this compares with an October last year when there were major logistical problems and no more shipments could be loaded because there was no greater availability of containers. In fact, if we look back, we remember that now we have some months where the maximum shipping capacity was around 200/210 Mlbs, it was not possible to ship more.

The reading that can be made of this data is that the market is not flowing as it would like, especially at such low prices where interest should be greater. The sellers' intention is to correct them as soon as possible in view of the rise in production costs, but this is not being achieved, it seems that the market is not prepared for this. The data is not a debacle, but it is not enough for what is intended.

Prices over the last few days have been steady at levels of around $1.55/lb current crop for Std 5% and at levels of $1.45/1.47/lb for previous crop, which still continues to have its weight in the market. The Euro exchange rate has been very erratic over the last few weeks, varying at levels of 0.10/0.15 €/kg depending on the exchange rate, very very erratic. The second hand, available offers, have been occurring at levels of 3.70/3.80 €/kg, stiff competition not only for Spanish almonds but also for the origin itself.

It is important to point out that the valley has enjoyed a squall of good rainfall not only in the form of water but also in the form of snow. But the most important thing has not been the squall itself, but the fact that it has been accompanied by low temperatures (in some places there is talk of even -15 ºC), which, remember that in California water reserves in the form of snow in the mountains are fundamental, has allowed the snow to be maintained and to set in a more lasting way. This is a squall that used to occur in December, which this year has been brought forward to November. This does not solve the drought issue for the coming harvest, of course, but it is a good start without any doubt.

At the moment, the reactions to these data have been moderate and it seems that the market will not undergo major changes, everything will remain fairly unchanged. We will see as the days go by.

As far as Spanish almonds are concerned, we can say that there has been no apparent change, not only in the last few weeks, but we can extend this to the whole of the season so far. We continue to have a surprisingly comfortable apathy on the part of both buyers and sellers. The seller is waiting for a better price which has so far failed to materialise and the buyer, apparently supplied mainly in the medium/short term, perhaps going for the cheaper American option, but not to any great extent either.

Prices remain the same, owners around 4.25/4.35 €/kg depending on sizes and varieties. Average sizes (12/14) at similar levels, if not lower. We have already been able to see operations on the market for example of Lauranne 12/14 at lower levels than this same variety in good sized owner. On the part of the large sizes (s/14), it does seem that it has taken somewhat higher levels, given the lack of supply of the same and how short the harvest seems to be coming in this sense, which makes demand more apparent in this product. Prices have already been around 4.60/4.65 €/kg for this size. But again, the intensity in buying large sizes is the same as in selling medium and owner calibers.

The higher priced products, such as Belona, Constantí, Ecological... are on a downward path due to the general market situation. In the workhorse varieties it is already difficult, given the wide differential with American almonds, and if we move on to more expensive products, it becomes even more difficult. This makes it clear that these products do not have a wide enough specific market to pay the intended value. We don't want to include Marconas and Larguetas in the equation, despite the fact that almost nothing is being traded in these varieties, because the harvest is so short for these varieties that supply and demand is almost non-existent in equal measure.

What seems clear at this stage of the year, and looking at the situation in perspective, is that it looks like there will be little change between now and the end of the year, and perhaps until we enter the speculative period of the coming harvest. There are no signs of major changes in the short/medium term, to be honest. What is clear is that in Spain there is an urgent need for rainfall, hopefully the future will bring us happy rains.

We hope this helps.

Thank you very much.

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