The latest report on US shipments for the month of MAY 2023 has been published.
The figure of shipments is 195.67 Mlbs (-24.0%), being last year's May figure of 257.55 Mlbs.
Regarding the sales of the month we have a figure of 113.98 Mlbs, being last year's figure of 116.73 Mlbs, which means a -2.41% of sales in the month of May.
Export shipments have been 140.73 Mlbs (-27.2%). Domestic shipments have been 54.94 Mlbs (-14.3%).
Regarding the harvest, we have an entry of 2,566.24 Mlbs (-11.82%). However, in the total harvest, adding carryin (836.81 Mlbs (+37.60%)), we have 3,351.72 Mlbs (-3.13%).
Regarding the sold and not shipped we have a total of 482.96 Mlbs (-21.37%). Shelled would be, with respect to domestic, 244.71 Mlbs (+2.36%) and export 238.25 Mlbs (-36.49%). With regard to the new crop 2023, a total of 57.45 Mlbs has been sold, which means -55.33% compared to what was sold last year at this point, which was a total of 128.61 Mlbs.
With this situation, a total of 677.42 Mlbs (+2.64%) would remain unsold (inventory).
With this data we can see that they have sold 2.674,30 Mlbs in general, a -4,49% compared to last year when they had made 2.800,15 Mlbs, that is to say that we are in a worse total sales position than last year with less total harvest available (-3,13%). This means that approximately 79.79% of the total crop has been sold. Last year 80.93% was sold. This means that, with equal shipments in the coming months until the end, there would be a carryin of around 700/750 Mlbs, but judging by the poor sales of the last shipments, it will be difficult to match the shipments of June and July last year. In fact, if the trend of -24% lower shipments continues in the next shipments, we would go to a carryin of around 800/820 Mlbs, close to that of the current crop. Everything will depend on how the next shipments go.
Regarding the destination of shipments, countries such as Japan, South Korea, France and the United Kingdom stand out positively. On the negative side, there are important countries such as Canada, China, India (very sharp drop), Germany (sharp drop), Italy, the Netherlands (sharp drop), Saudi Arabia (sharp drop), Turkey (very sharp drop), the Arab Emirates (very, very, very sharp drop) and Morocco. In Spain, the situation has been negative, with 16.95 Mlbs this month against 24.63 Mlbs the previous year (-31.18%). In total, 165.64 Mlbs of crop have been exported this year and 184.59 Mlbs last year (-10.27%). In Europe in general 56.99 Mlbs this month against 74.64 Mlbs last year (-23.65%). The total crop has been exported to Europe -5.03% less than last harvest.
With these data there are a number of factors that make bullish thinking difficult. Shipment data have been poor compared to the excellent data of May last year, but this was expected. The same will be true for the upcoming June shipments, which judging by the poor sales of the last few months, are unlikely to surpass last year's record June shipments of 278.59 Mlbs.
We should not forget that both the present May shipments and the upcoming June shipments, we are comparing to record figures. Even so, the data we have had in May this year of 195.67 million pounds is not a bad number, despite the fact that the comparison shows a -24% drop. We are talking about the third highest shipments in recent years, not too bad.
Monthly sales have also been somewhat worse than last year, but especially sales of new crop 2023 are very poor. This was already visible in past reports when it was commented that sales and non-shipments were low. This shows that, despite being at low prices, the buyer has not taken the plunge to hedge for the long term. There could be many reasons for this. It could be because the buyer is more short term than long term and therefore more up to date, it could also be because consumption has fallen so much that the buyer is a little more cautious than usual, or a mixture of both. It may also be because they are simply waiting for better prices in the future despite being at low levels (although we have had a few weeks of higher prices as a result of the estimates, little supported by the buyer as seen in shipments and future sales, now with the correction in prices again the buyer may be encouraged) ....
What is clear is that when prices have risen, the buyer has not reacted and has remained on the sidelines. When the last INC congress started in London, current crop prices were 1.75/1.80 $/lb and new crop prices were 2 $/lb with very low activity. At the end of the congress, current crop prices were $1.60/1.65/lb and new crop prices were $1.75/1.80/lb, being the lowest for earlier shipments and the highest for later shipments. This is the situation that has been maintained until the present publication of the shipments, observing a little more activity in the last days with this correction in the prices.
In the following tables we can see the price evolution:
There will probably not be too many changes until the expected date of 7 July with the publication of the objective crop estimate. If there are any, they are unlikely to be upwards, judging by the way the outlook looks. Traditionally not very active dates are approaching, holiday periods, which may bring some nervousness and concern about the surplus, which increasingly looks like it will not be very different to last year, despite having less crop. This date will be key to the future.
After the publication of the current shipments, the market seems to be pulling back a little on the price, but in the next few days we will see more exactly how everything turns out.
As far as Spanish almonds are concerned, the most important thing is the lack of activity. As in the case of the American almond mentioned above, there has also been a downward correction. Prices have moved to levels of 3.95/4 €/kg for both new crop and current crop.
We have observed that supply has increased over the last few weeks, but focused on products that are not very attractive to demand. The former has focused on low and medium sizes, ungraded, soleta, lauranne, valencia, belona... and the latter was somewhat more active in large sizes, guara and organic. What was on offer was not attractive for demand and vice versa.
In the new crop there has been more movement, especially because the new crop prices are very similar to those of the new American crop at the exchange rate, but in the current crop where the difference with respect to the American crop is 0.20/0.30 €/kg, it is where it is more difficult to operate. If in general the market is not very active, when there is a high price difference with your competition, it becomes a practically non-existent market.
We will see at what levels Spanish almonds remain after the publication of these shipments, but like the American, if it does anything, it will be more downward than upward and very much pending the objective American estimate to see the future of the market more clearly.
The rains we have had in the last few weeks have been very good for the fields and have not completely solved the problem of the drought, it has also rained very unevenly throughout the territory, but in general it has given a change of face especially to rainfed crops and irrigated crops and at least some more irrigation than we have had up to now. As a result, there is a growing number of people who think that we may be facing the biggest Spanish crop in its history. We have to work very hard to be up to the task commercially speaking and to give them the best possible way out that they deserve.
We hope our comments will help.
Thank you very much.
