We have the publication of the last report about the American shipments of the last month of JULY 2023.
The shipments figure is 186.67 Mlbs (+10.2%), with last year's July figure of 169.42 Mlbs. This is the second highest figure in history after the 2021 record of 229.39 Mlbs.
Regarding the sales of the month we have a figure of 108.56 Mlbs, being last year's figure of 63.29 Mlbs, which means a +71.53% of sales in the month of July. This is the highest sales figure for the month of July in recent years.
Regarding the sales of new crop, 204.89 Mlbs have been sold at the moment, when last year they were 298.47 Mlbs, which means that -31.36% of the new crop has been sold compared to last year. This has happened because priority has been given and efforts (lower prices) have been concentrated on the old crop already, crop 2022, and the new crop has been left a little more aside, to try to avoid the crop overlap not lasting too long and not happening like this year when the old crop was very present during the first months of the new one. But this has not been fully achieved because the surplus is only slightly less than last year and we have a similar crop, so we are at this point at the same level as last year with less new crop sold, similar surplus, similar crop and we already know what has happened with the overlap. In other words, with total available harvests (crop + surplus) more or less similar, sales of new crop have been considerably reduced due to the situation of a high surplus. In July 2020, 695.95 Mlbs of new crop was sold, in 2021 a total of 441.54 Mlbs, in 2022 a total of 298.47 Mlbs and now in 2023 a total of 204.89 Mlbs.
Export shipments have been 130.14 Mlbs (+15.9%). Domestic shipments were 56.52 Mlbs (-1.1%).
Regarding the crop, we have an inflow of 2,571.12 Mlbs (-12.01%). However, in the total harvest, adding carryin (836.81 Mlbs (+37.60%)), we have 3,356.51 Mlbs (-3.32%).
Regarding the sold and not shipped we have a total of 372.93 Mlbs (+7.10%). The shelled, compared to domestic, would be 182.76 Mlbs (+24.12%) and the exported 190.17 Mlbs (-5.38%).
With this situation, a total of 418.96 Mlbs (-14.42%) would remain unsold (inventory).
With this data we can see that overall we have sold 2,937.55 Mlbs, -1.50% compared to last year when we had 2,982.16 Mlbs, which means that we are in a better total sales position than last year as we have a better figure than what we have less total crop available (-3.32%). We can already see that the carryin (surplus) will be around 791 Mlbs, that is around -5.5% with respect to the carryin we have had this harvest. Therefore, as we have already said in previous reports, we are facing a 2023 crop very similar to that of this 2022 crop, with a similar entry according to objective estimation data and a similar surplus. Of course, of this surplus, more is sold than last year, as we have seen in what is sold not shipped, +7.10%, which will mean that the old crop will not last as long as the new one, both in terms of shipments due to a smaller surplus and in terms of sales due to having more sold (clarifying the difference between surplus and sold not shipped. The carryin is what is physically left over, without shipment, for the next harvest, which starts in August. Sold not shipped is what has been sold in the long term but not yet delivered or shipped. You can have a very high surplus and it is all sold, for example. This year, we have a carryin of about 791 Mlbs of which 373 Mlbs is sold. Therefore, of this carryin, there is still some 418 Mlbs unsold and last year 489 Mlbs, i.e. we have more sold of this surplus which in turn is somewhat less).
With regard to the destination of shipments, countries such as Canada, Japan, South Korea (strong increase), India (very strong increase), France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Turkey stand out positively. On the negative side, there are important countries such as China (very strong fall), Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (strong fall) and Morocco. In Spain, the situation has been positive, with 14.96 Mlbs this month compared to 12.97 Mlbs the previous year (+15.34%). In total, 193.79 Mlbs of crop have been exported this year compared to 226.99 Mlbs last year (-14.62%). In Europe in general 52.57 Mlbs this month against 43.58 Mlbs last year (+20.63%). The total crop has been exported to Europe -7.76% less than last crop.
With these data, we end the 2022 harvest on a bittersweet note. On the one hand we have data that are improving in the latest reports (the negative differential with respect to last year in terms of new crop sales has been reduced, monthly sales have been improving, these latest shipments have been good, the carryin is finally somewhat lower than last year, we have managed to sell more of this surplus than last year, which means that the shipment and sale of old crop will not be so extended in time...) but on the other hand we have that in order to increase sales of old crop, we have resorted to the lowest prices in recent years, even reaching the lowest prices in recent years. ) but on the other hand, in order to increase sales of the old crop, the lowest prices in recent years have been used, even reaching bargain basement prices, leaving sales of the new crop to one side, in order to improve the figures a little. In other words, the effort has been very high to achieve only a small improvement. In other words, not even with very low prices has it been possible to motivate demand to come in in a very significant way. All this at the cost of lower sales of the new crop which, with the passage of time, will again become a ball, with the premise that if we do not manage to increase demand significantly, we will return at the end of the harvest to a similar situation of being stuck, without knowing what the next harvest will be like.
In the last few weeks we have gone from prices, after objective estimation, of 1.50 $/lb old crop and 1.60/1.65 $/lb new crop, to 1.38/1.40 $/lb old crop and 1.50/1.55 $/lb new crop (the higher the prices the longer the distance in time of shipments). Probably with these shipment data, the market will cut the downward progression of the price and will try, in view of the seller's need, to take some cents upwards, or at least, that the balance price of the old crop will be diluted in time and the new crop will be left with a better price. These prices we have indicated are Std 5% prices, but it should be noted that the differential between this product and the rest of the varieties, calibres and qualities is particularly large. Once we move away from this product, the prices move upwards significantly, somewhat higher than normal. For this reason, there are those who think that when the need to sell Std 5% ends, the price may come closer to the rest of the products.
These shipments actually provide bullish data that can move the market. Not so much up or down, but rather to activate the market. The pity is that they occur in the month of least activity of all and where this information has less echo because it is in the strong holiday period. And in our opinion, they are not good enough to make the buyer get out of his or her holiday state and start shopping.
But we must not forget that, for better or for worse, we are facing a new harvest that will be very, very similar to the already finished 2022 harvest, in terms of available. But there is the concern of reduced consumption. This is what is really important. Far from data, figures, speculations and individual thoughts, the most important thing is to know what has really happened to consumption, whether it has fallen as much as the 10/15% that is being talked about and whether we can somehow reverse this situation, for the good of all.
As far as Spanish almonds are concerned, the most important and crucial aspect continues to be the lack of existing activity, added to the concern about the lack of size that is being found in the production areas that are active at the moment. As the weeks go by, the business opportunities are still very low and this is already a cause for concern.
In recent weeks we have had prices of 3.45 €/kg just after the objective American figure to go to the last traded at levels of 3.30 €/kg, both for short, medium and long term. We observe a Spanish company that positions itself strongly in the long term, something unusual, forced by the situation and the need to perhaps prioritise sales in search of a few cents more. We also observed a somewhat more active buyer in the long term, showing signs of being covered for the short and medium term.
On the other hand, due to the early harvest, there is a gap of 10/15 days between the entry of almonds and their sale. This year, by 20th August, practically all the producing areas will be harvesting almonds and entering the industry, some areas more than others, of course, but by that date, a very high percentage of the market will be on holiday, which may cause initial concern among sellers, a certain amount of anxiety and, why not say it, a certain paralysis in the shell market, which is very unusual.
We are facing the biggest harvest in the history of Spain and this, frankly, is catching us unprepared. This will probably be a year that will force the industry to have a very Americanised approach to the peel and, on the other hand, on the commercial side, it will be a year in which it will be very difficult to open up the market because not much has been done in the past. Nor has practically anything been invested in advertising, so perhaps there is no other way to open up the market that is urgently needed, given the quantity of almonds we have, than through price.
Then, as we have said, there is a problem of lack of size which does not help and makes the situation even more complex if possible. We will probably see price differentials between unusual sizes. But this should not be seen as anything more than a challenge, a situation that we must overcome and learn from in order to move forward in the future. This may not be the best year to have the best prices, nor to be calm, but it will be a year where we will learn a lot and we will have to fight.
We hope our comments will help.
Thanks
