We already have the publication of the last report about the American shipments of the last month of DECEMBER 2021.
The number of shipments is 188.81 Mlbs (-26.5%), lower than the figure for December of last year with 256.90 Mlbs, which was a record figure in the history of the months of December.
Regarding the sales of the month, we have a data of 246.80 Mlbs, being 172.66 Mlbs last year, which means + 42.94% of sales in the month of December.
Export shipments have been 124.50 Mlbs (-36.5%). Domestic shipments have been 64.30 Mlbs (+ 5.8%), which by the way have been record domestic shipments.
Regarding the crop, we have an entry of 2,656.87 Mlbs (-7.38%). However, in the total harvest, adding the carryin, we have 3,211.87 Mlbs (-1.52%). With a harvest input of around 85/90% of the total, it can be seen that effectively the total will be around 2.90/3 Blbs, plus 2.90 Blbs as possible. In other words, with these data, we would have a harvest of 2.87 Blbs (last season they were 3.10 Blbs), which added to the carryin of 0.61 Blbs we would go to a total of 3.48 Blbs, very similar to the season past where we had a total of around 3.50 Blbs. In other words, we would have a harvest very similar to the last one.
Regarding what was sold and not shipped, we have a total of 811.05 Mlbs (-11.90%) (this has improved a lot compared to the -25.05% of last November, coinciding with the good monthly sales data that will have been many of them sales without shipping). Shelling would be, with respect to domestic, 336.30 Mlbs (-10.43%) and exports 474.76 Mlbs (-12.91%). The latter are the ones who have led the recovery of this data.
With this situation, a total of 1,339.03 Mlbs (+ 26.68%) would remain unsold (inventory), where past shipments were + 59.16%, a good recovery also that goes hand in hand with the situation of positive sales.
With these data we can see that 1.87 Blbs have been sold in general, -15.04% from last year. In the average of shipments of everything that we have carried so far, we have -17.29%, less shipped than last season. Therefore, about 2/3 of the harvest has been sold.
Regarding the destination of shipments, countries such as Canada, Japan, Italy or Turkey stand out positively. On the negative side, there are many important countries such as China (very strong decrease), South Korea, Vietnam, India (strong decrease), Germany (strong decrease), France (strong decrease), Holland, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia (strong decrease), United Arab Emirates or Morocco (very strong decrease). In Spain the situation has been very negative, with 15.40 Mlbs this month compared to 21.74 Mlbs the previous year (-29.16%). In total harvest, 67.01 Mlbs have been exported this year and last year 95.06 Mlbs (-29.51%). In Europe in general, 49.83 Mlbs this month compared to 74.59 Mlbs the previous year (-33.19%). In total harvest, -25% has been exported to Europe than the last harvest.
These data leave some bearish sensations, as we have seen last week that this data was already coming. But on the other hand, in our opinion and different from the data of shipments last November, there are positive things. This December sales have been very good and have been able to reduce the deficient futures sales cushion that is dragging on. This is very important data and totally contrary to the current bearish feeling. The harvest input is displayed more way of 2.90 Blbs than 3 Blbs, which also has to be taken into account. Therefore, not all the data is bearish in nature.
But it is true that these shipments, together with a few weeks of quite good rains and snows in the valley, have somewhat calmed down the concern of water on the part of the seller and has caused the intensity of the supply to rise a lot in the face of these data and cause this bearish situation.
In fact, after the figures, we have been able to observe operations and movements towards the $ 1.80/lb, speaking of the Std 5%. It is true that if you look at last season, the floor was around $ 1.80/lb. This season, with higher energy costs, products such as fertilizers and fertilizers, etc. It was logical to think that the floor should be higher than last year, therefore these levels that are beginning to be shuffled today give one to think that it is something permanent or something specific, to return to higher levels once a significant volume of activity is achieved. Time will tell.
So far it was being shipped at the maximum possible capacity, data around 220 Mlbs. There was no more because there was no greater capacity in the ports. These data for the month of December, with its holidays and others, suggest that there may have been a similar situation, a maximum boarding capacity within the month in question.
It is curious that in light of the data of the previous month, not only bad data in shipments but also in sales, the price was practically not affected, and thus it has remained, at levels of around 1.95 / 1, 98 $ / lb for weeks, speaking of Std 5%. The offer was quite firm and the demand, typical of the month of December. However, it has been to change the year, deduce this data and the price has collapsed. As we have commented, we will see if it is something permanent or temporary. There are reasons to think about both possibilities.
On the part of the Spanish almond, the entire month of December has passed with practically no activity. An offer that is not very receptive at levels of € 4.10 / 4.20 / kg and a demand more looking at the medium / long term and at these levels, although not with much intensity either. Owner commune prices.
We once again have one more month, together with November, of very low activity and we ended the campaign with the suspicion that there may still be many kilos to move, in less frequent times for the Spanish almond traditionally as it is outside the campaign. We will see how this situation is handled more and more frequently, but at some point it must be opened to the activity if you do not want to have a very high surplus in the long run or that when it arrives, it is all covered and only fast deliveries remain, which as We have said many times, the Spanish should something much more than the immediate count.
Under this situation it should find its place, its equilibrium situation to which there is activity, whatever it may be, otherwise we will experience a situation very similar to last season.
The organic for its part continues with a downward trend, reaching levels around € 8.80/kg. It seems that as the price falls the activity is on the rise, we also hope that it will soon find its breakeven point.
In addition, we offer a table of the evolution of the month of December regarding the American almond that can help to understand what we have commented.