We already have the publication of the latest report on American shipments from last January 2021.
The number of shipments is 177.21 Mlbs (-8.8%), lower than the figure for January last year with 194.29 Mlbs, which was already a fairly low figure compared to what had been done in previous months and what was done afterwards.
Regarding the sales of the month we have a data of 232.09 Mlbs, being 298.09 Mlbs last year, which means -28.44% of sales in the month of September.
Export shipments have been 110.64 Mlbs (-18.4%). The domestic ones have been 66.57 Mlbs (+13.3%).
Regarding the harvest, we have an entry of 2,827.68 Mlbs (-6.53%). However, in the total harvest, adding the carryin, we have 3,379.26 Mlbs (-1.04%). Last year, between January and the end of the season, 81.64 Mlbs entered. If we add that figure to this year's entry, we see how the harvest will be around 2.90 Blbs, as has been commented on in previous reports.
Regarding what was sold and not shipped, we have a total of 753.06 Mlbs (-25.05%) (this data has improved, although little, compared to the -27.70% of last October). In domestic: 338.89 Mlbs (-13.84%) and exports 414.26 Mlbs (-32.37%).
With this situation, a total of 1,298.78 Mlbs (+29.27%) would remain unsold (inventory).
With these data we can see that 2.08 Blbs have been sold in general, -13.68% compared to last year, when 2.41 Blbs were sold. With only -1% availability of total almonds, there is actually less sales of -12.68% than last year at this time, reducing the slab of -25.28% with which the campaign began. The bad first months of the campaign continue to be paid. In the average of shipments of everything that we have carried out so far, we have a -16.17%, less shipped than last season.
Regarding the destination of shipments, few countries such as Japan stand out positively. On the negative side, there are many important countries such as Canada, China, South Korea, Vietnam (very strong decrease), India (very strong decrease), Belgium, Germany (very strong decrease), France (strong decrease), Italy (very strong decrease) very strong), Greece (strong decrease), Holland (very strong decrease), United Kingdom, Turkey (strong decrease), Saudi Arabia (strong decrease), United Arab Emirates or Morocco (very strong decrease). In Spain the situation has been very negative, with 10.15 Mlbs this month compared to 22.28 Mlbs the previous year (-54.44%). In total harvest, 40.68 Mlbs have been exported this year and 52.93 Mlbs last year (-23.14%). In Europe in general 36.25 Mlbs this month compared to 71.83 Mlbs the previous year (-49.53%). In total harvest, -25% has been exported to Europe than last.
These data leave some bearish feelings. In the first place, and it has nothing to do with the price and its fluctuation, possibly the most important thing, we observe that the logistical problem, far from improving, worsens. We came from a shipping capacity that was around 210/220 Mlbs to now fall below 180 Mlbs, even lower than the complicated month of December. They don't ship anymore because they can't, not because they don't want to or they don't sell. This causes a situation that is difficult to control, since it is outside our powers. It is causing a huge surplus in the long run. In other words, the carryin will be very high and close to 1 Blbs... something unprecedented and very difficult to manage.
Adding to this an adequate harvest to come, just considering a harvest similar to this year, we would go to almost 4 Blbs... a dizzying figure. It is true that in January the rains have been non-existent, although before there were good levels and snowfalls, it is expected that these months, the really rainy ones, will improve. For now, it seems that the fruit setting is going well and it is also true that there are areas where there is still a shortage of water. It is early to speak with certainty of the coming harvest, and there will be areas with better conditions than others, we will be very attentive.
Together with this logistical problem, we see that the sales of January, where the price reached the levels of last year (we have reached the levels of 1.80/1.85 $/lb speaking of Std 5% and that is how everything has remained In fact, the rest of the qualities, varieties and sizes have also been falling in price until everything is very grouped, for little more than a Std 5% you could buy an SSR quality and for something more a good size ...) and it seemed that the buyer was animated with intensity, they have been good, but not as it was felt. Little by little the slab, previously mentioned, of less sold than last year is being reduced. Those first bars of the campaign with such bad numbers, it is costing a lot to recover them.
Now we face dates in which we have to be very aware of flowering, harvest estimates, rains, frosts and others, very speculative dates. But the most important thing, in our opinion, is to recover the logistics normality that is causing so many problems, but this will not be foreseeable in the short term.
On the part of the Spanish almond, it has remained very stable throughout the month of January up to the present. It has reached the level of €4.10/kg and has remained there. It is true that this level is quite different from the American level of origin, around €3.80/kg depending on how the currency exchange rate fluctuates, which is also very unstable. But the price has remained stable mainly due to the low supply. Many almonds, which are stored in shell at levels higher than the current ones, prefer to wait for harvest results to take positions. This causes little output and thus little supply.
For its part, long-term demand does not accept this differential and the price is not attractive. Medium term with the logistical problems of the American begins to interest more, but not enough for now to pay that differential. Therefore, only the short term remains. And this is how everything that we have been doing in 2022 has been happening, with specific operations, all very punctual and fundamentally for the short term. This has been coinciding with the low supply and therefore the market has remained stable. If the demand had been stronger, the market would have risen in the absence of supply, or vice versa. If the supply had been higher, it would have dropped more due to the not much demand, but both have had a similar intensity.
Given the logistical problems of the American and a possible lack of supply, a window opens for Spanish almonds, which, in this case, would only compete with the American in available or second-hand, which currently has a price of around €4 /kg. You may have a good opportunity to cover a market affected by delays. But this is something that remains to be seen to what extent. It depends on the buyer's forecast, on the available offer that there will be from American and other factors. But it is clear that something is going to benefit him, although he has been waiting for this and has not seen much yet. The worse the logistical situation, the Spanish benefits more, but if it happens, it should take advantage of it because the rebound situation would have to be taken into account, benefit on the one hand and detriment when all that delayed American almond arrives at once. You have to know how to manage it properly.
The ecological for its part continues with its downward path and a lot of apathy. The situation is already worrying, perhaps paying for the high levels that have been had and the huge differential that has been maintained in recent years. What is clear is that you are in the process of searching your site and knowing what your real situation would be.
In addition, we offer tables and graphs of the evolution of the price, as well as of the month of January, regarding the American almond, which can help to better understand what we have discussed.
