Market update (August 2021)

The market has evolved in recent weeks in a rather inactive way, also typical of the month of August, a month of vacation period. It has been a period where, beginning to speak of the American almond, the offer has raised a progressive rise in prices due to the problem of drought and everything that derives from it, increased even more with the good figures of shipments published in the past July.

With all these data, including drought, the offer posed an upward situation in prices, even reaching the 2020 harvest (old) around 2.45/2.50 $/lb and the 2021 harvest (new) around 2.55/$2.60/lb. The almond in California began to show a lack of size, quite small, and this caused a price difference between small and large sizes that was quite bulky, which has remained until now. The yields were not the best either and this caused a rather pessimistic situation in the American sellers, especially for varieties such as Non Pareil and even more so in large sizes, as we have mentioned. Countries like India, anticipating purchases for fear of possible logistics problems of shipping companies, preparing Diwali, were directly affected by these prices, even being, rarely has this been experienced, the almond in shell of Non Pareil more expensive than Std 5% grain. The rest of buyers, especially Europe, remained and in fact continue to remain, on the sidelines, not entering into this rise proposed by the seller and continuing with the discourse of tranquility and of being supplied for the short/medium term.

 

This lack of activity in the face of the situation raised caused the American seller to back down from his position and, to encourage activity in the face of, above all, the strength of the campaign now in September, he changed his position, began to bid and lowered a bit. prices, especially in small sizes and very little in larger sizes.

 

In this way we reach the situation we have today, with prices of Std 5% in old harvest that are around $2.40/lb and in new ones of $2.45/lb. But above all, the attitude and the trend have changed. When weeks ago the trend was clearly upward and strong (something, we repeat, supported by the selling side and little shared by the buying side) now the trend is different. The intensity of the supply has increased and the buying attitude is not the closest to entering these prices either in a general way. In other words, despite the aforementioned change, the buyer continues to be quite absent.

 

Below we show some tables of the evolution of the price of Std 5% and other products: As an important note, when we talk about August we are already talking about new crop.

evolution std fas
almond prices
american almond prices
precios almendra americana

Regarding the Spanish almond, a situation very similar to the American one and carried by it. During the month of August it has gone with an upward trend to where we are currently. The situation has been very similar to the American one, the seller proposing an increase in prices that the buyer has had a hard time assimilating, very slowly, and being shared by few buyers, especially international ones, giving rise to very low activity .

 

We see a situation in the shell, a situation of joy, of wanting to do operations, with a clearly upward trend and in a much faster and more intense way than what happens in the grain, where this joy, especially speaking of international operations, we insist , has not been seen.

 

For whatever reason, because there is a high percentage of buyers supplied, because they are vacation dates or simply because they do not enter these prices, the activity has been very low. The supply, due to the commented joy in the shell and the vertiginous rise in prices, has been quite weak and pushing up. But the buyer has been quite absent, which has caused that the intensity and speed of rise in husk has been greater than in grain.

 

In fact, we have arrived, we insist, very little by little, at price levels of around € 4.50/4.60/kg, depending on the variety, size and other peculiarities (not counting those varieties such as Bellona, largueta , marcona ... which have a different price).

 

We repeat that the activity, both by the seller and the buyer, is not high, in fact, the little supply that comes out, later or later less, is placed and the opposite happens with the demand. For now we are talking about few operations. The doubt is when, be it the supply or the demand, increases in intensity, this will be what the market decays to one side or the other.

 

In any case, we enter September, starting with the strength of the new season, with a situation of very little activity and some passivity in the face of the situation that is being experienced in the market. Whether the buyer with his reasons or the seller with his, the normal thing is that the activity increases significantly in the coming days and we can already see in a much clearer way, not like now, what the market reality is and based on a firm market of operations, not in a few of them and in many opinions or trends.

 

Below we show the evolution of prices in Comuna proprietario in both conventional and ecological domestic market.

evolucion almendra española
evolucion almendra española

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