MOST IMPORTANT SHIPMENT RESULTS OCTOBER 2024:
- Shipments: 258.44 Mlbs (+4.5%)
- Sales for the month of October: 264.74 Mlbs (+5.6%)
- Total sales to date: 1,313.98 Mlbs (-3.0%)
– Carryin: 502,65 Mlbs (-37,2%)
- Crop intake: 1,845.32 Mlbs (+38.3%)
- Total quantity available (harvest + surplus harvest 23): 2,311.07 Mlbs (+9.6%)
- Total sold unshipped: 673.69 Mlbs (-0.6%)
- Total unsold: 997.09 Mlbs (+32.4%)
- Shipments to Spain in October: 11.40 Mlbs (-17.7%) (overall -31%)
- Shipments to Europe in October: 42.12 Mlbs (-3.5%) (overall -25%)
SHIPMENT AND MARKET ANALYSIS
As we were commenting prior to the publication of the shipments, the results are very positive. We have good shipments, the third best in recent years, and little by little the bad start in August is being cushioned, with a total of -5.4% shipped so far in the crop, compared to last year. Monthly sales are also the third best in recent years and in total the bad start is also being cushioned, with only -3% less sold than last year.
Looking at the destinations of shipments, we observe the good data from important countries such as Canada, South Korea, Turkey or the United Arab Emirates against the bad data from China (very bad), Japan, India (very bad), Europe in general except Italy which have been good against the very bad ones from Germany and the regular ones from the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia and Morocco. It can be seen that exports have been similar to last year and what has made the difference upwards have been the domestic ones, which have been better. That is to say, Asia has clearly punctured, Europe has not been bad and the Middle East and domestic shipments have pulled the cart.
There is one important fact that invites reflection and that is the entry of the harvest. It would be unfair to draw conclusions compared to last year because, let's remember, harvesting was delayed by about a month and in October there was still a significant delay and it was not a significant figure. Therefore, it would be necessary to compare with previous years and this is what we have done:
- October 2022 input was 1,656.93 Mlbs, final harvest 2.57 Blbs.
- October 2021 input was 1,794.18 Mlbs, final harvest 2.92 Blbs.
- October 2020 input was 1,810.65 Mlbs, final harvest 3.11 Blbs.
- October 2019 input was 1,590.26 Mlbs, final harvest 2.55 Blbs.
Based on this data, with an entry of 1,845.32 Mlbs, we would be looking at final harvests higher than even 3 Blbs (this October entry is higher than the October 2020 entry whose final harvest was 3.11 Blbs). This is quite the opposite of what has been happening since prices started to rise at the beginning of June. Looking back, prices started to rise due to good May shipments and a lower than expected crop theory, with the final objective estimate in July reducing the subjective estimate from 3 Blbs to 2.8 Blbs. From this moment on, prices started to rise even more and especially during the summer months when it was said that the crop would even be lower than the estimated 2.8 Blbs, some described it as a catastrophic harvest. In short, all the price increase and a large part of it has been based on a bad harvest, disastrous for some, or at least lower than expected, which, according to these data, is not going to be the case. What is more, if it continues this progression, the subjective may even fall short. It is too early to take anything for granted, but bad or catastrophic we can already rule it out. This begs the question, if this current situation is based and built on a theory of harvesting that is not very good, very bad for some, and this is not the case, how will the current situation be affected?
In recent days we have seen a rise in the prices of the more European products, such as Std 5%, reaching levels of 2.50 $/lb when not so long ago we were talking about 2.35 $/lb. It is true that varieties such as Non Pareil or other varieties and calibres with higher prices have not been affected and are following a continuous progression. It is the cheapest products that have been most affected by rising prices, thus producing an accordion effect in prices. In other words, the cheapest products have risen and the most expensive ones have even seen days when prices have fallen by a few cents. The gap between the most expensive and the cheapest has narrowed.
It is surprising to see good shipment figures in Europe, as well as good sales figures. Our personal opinion is that we see the same lack of activity, especially in Europe, that we have been seeing for the last few months, nothing to do with these figures. This is not really in line with our day-to-day feeling. There seems to be more going on than meets the eye or appears to be the case, there can be no other explanation. We do see that important countries such as China and India are not pulling their own weight either, however, good sales are still coming out, which indicates that, despite prices being almost $1 higher than last year, the market is flowing.
Regarding the Spanish almond, we see it as the great solution for all those who cannot afford to pay these American prices and are looking for a cheaper option in the Spanish almond. Many others are profiles that use both and this time they choose Spanish almonds because of the price. Some others are also those who, for the same price, prefer Spanish and if it is already cheaper, all the better. Others use Spanish directly. We want to say that Spanish is presented to everyone's taste, both to those who go for the price and to those who prefer it and value it. Maybe this is an opportunity for some people to start with the former and end up with the latter. Be that as it may, it is a very good opportunity for the Spanish almond to show itself as a quality alternative at a good price.
The demand is mainly focused on prompt delivery, some, the fewest, appear for the medium/long term, but the bulk, we would say 80% of the demands that arrive, are for the short term. The buyer is very busy, with little margin for new orders between now and Christmas, so in order to make room for this short term buyer in need, he has to pay for it. And for this reason we have also seen an upward trend in Spain lately. In fact, we can talk about a rise of between 0.20/0.25 €/kg since the last shipments. This is normal considering the difference with respect to the American almond.
The Spanish almond flows quite clearly and we would say that it is in an advantageous position where, although demand is not very high, it is somewhat higher than the little supply that exists and everything flows, gradually pushing up the price. The price does not rise faster and faster because the demand is not very strong, but it is intense enough to make prices rise slowly, in almost all varieties.
The organic almond market continues to be at a standstill and once again we have to talk about scarce or almost non-existent operations and a clearly downward trend. It is getting closer and closer to the conventional price.
We hope our comments will help.
Thanks
