American Shipments October 2021

We already have the publication of the last report about the American shipments of OCTOBER 2021.

Shipments are 217.07 Mlbs (-29.9%), lower than the figure for October last year with 309.69 Mlbs, which was a record figure not only for the month of October, but also in history of all the months of shipments, a very high goal that is difficult to surpass this year as expected.

Regarding the sales of the month we have a data of 244.33 Mlbs (somewhat better than the 232.09 Mlbs of September), being 250.01 Mlbs last year, which means a -2.72% of sales in the month of October .

Export shipments have been 151.88 Mlbs (-35.6%). Domestic ones have been 65.19 Mlbs (-11.6%).

Regarding the harvest, we have an entry of 1,794.18 Mlbs (-0.91%). However, in the total harvest, adding the carryin, we have 2,366.44 Mlbs (+ 6.38%). With a harvest input of around 55% of the total, you can already see how the whole of it will be, it is difficult with these data that it will be the 2.8 Blbs that the objective estimate said, being more realistic, a priori with these data, we repeat, the data of 3.2 Blbs that said the subjective estimate. The same not so much, but closer to it than the objective it seems that it will be. With these data, we would have a harvest of 3.17 Blbs (last season they were 3.10 Blbs), which added the carryin of 0.6 Blbs we would go to a total of 3.77 Blbs, when last season we had a total of around of 3.5 Blbs. In other words, we would have more harvest this season than last.

Regarding what was sold and not shipped, we have a total of 747.95 Mlbs (-27.60%) (this data has improved compared to -34.05% last September). Shelling would be, with respect to domestic, 343.76 Mlbs (-16.69%) and exports 404.19 Mlbs (-34.85%).

With this situation, a total of 966.42 Mlbs (+ 125.89%) would remain unsold (inventory).

With these data we can see that 1.40 Blbs has been sold in general, -22.08% from last year. In the average of shipments of what we have so far we have -14.63% less shipped than last season.

Regarding the destination of shipments, few countries such as Japan stand out positively. On the negative side, there are many important countries such as Canada, China, South Korea, Vietnam (very strong decrease), India (very strong decrease), Belgium, Germany (very strong decrease), France (strong decrease), Italy (very strong decrease) very strong), Greece (strong decrease), Holland (very strong decrease), United Kingdom, Turkey (strong decrease), Saudi Arabia (strong decrease), United Arab Emirates or Morocco (very strong decrease). In Spain the situation has been very negative, with 10.15 Mlbs this month compared to 22.28 Mlbs the previous year (-54.44%). In total harvest, 40.68 Mlbs have been exported this year and 52.93 Mlbs last year (-23.14%). In Europe in general 36.25 Mlbs this month compared to 71.83 Mlbs the previous year (-49.53%). In total harvest, -25% has been exported to Europe than last.

These data leave clearly bearish feelings. There are good data such as the improvement compared to shipments in September in sales and not shipped (sales to futures), which we have already seen in recent weeks with the improvement in activity for the first half of 2022, but the rest of the data are bearish. Bad shipments were foreseeable, sales for the month of October were negative as well, especially the first fortnight of the same, which was very, very little active, but the most devastating data is the one we have commented, that of the beginning of the harvest.

This data only confirms that there will be a similar total harvest, but a little more, than last season. With which the drought issue has not affected this harvest too much. We do not know what will happen for the next one, this will depend on how the weeks go by and the rainfall that is had, but this will influence the dance of new harvest data, that already in the face of February 2022 onwards. For now, the data we have are these, and it presages that we are going to a situation very similar to last year, where prices could not rise from $ 2 / lb and most of the operations revolved around 1, 80 / $ 1.85 / lb.

After this, the demand has reacted with buying interest for these parameters, of $ 1.80 / 1.85 / lb, to which the offer has responded with silence. We will see how the market evolves in the next few days, but this sounds, as we have said, a very similar music to last year.

As we have mentioned, in recent weeks, especially from the second half of October, the market has recovered a much more lively activity, especially as we have been approaching $ 2 / lb, which shows that the buyer at levels close to last year reacts. Which is not bad news, at least there has been a reaction.

On the part of the Spanish almond, this situation only forces it to have a bearish view of the market. In recent weeks the trend has been downward, perhaps not with the same intensity as the American one, since the decline has been less, but this in turn has caused activity to be very weak. Just as the American has been activated, the Spanish has been deactivated. In other words, when the American was at € 4.90 / kg and the Spanish at € 4.50 / kg, the activity was much higher for Spanish than for American (in those markets where both are present) and there was quite a lot of activity compared to the American one. But when it got to the point that the American was at € 4.10 / kg and the Spanish at € 4.20 / kg, the situation was completely the opposite. In addition, the interests have arrived for the first half of 2022, and for those dates apart from the prices of Spanish not being attractive, the seller, due to the way we work, is reluctant.

Therefore, in the face of this situation, a future looks very similar to last year. That when we want to sell for those months, it is already quite covered and this causes another large surplus at the end of the road ... We do not want to be ominous, but if we continue with this low activity, that will be what will happen to us again.

It is clear that when the Spanish almond is equal to or more expensive than the American, its activity is greatly diminished. And this was valid for past harvests of 50/60 million kg, with which we now have we must aspire to a larger market and expand the radius, and for this, perhaps, it is necessary to put on the overalls again.

The organic one for its part has a downward trend as well, due to the high prices compared to its competitors. Activity is very low in recent days and this has caused a slight decrease. We hope that little by little you will find your way.

In addition, we offer some graphs of the evolution of the month of October with respect to the American almond that can help to better understand this situation.

We hope this helps.

Thank you very much.

 

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