The latest report on American shipments for the month of MARCH 2023 has been published.
The figure of shipments is 281.07 Mlbs (+14.7%), while the figure for March last year was 244.98 Mlbs. This means that we have a record figure. In other words, this figure is the highest of all the months of March so far and the second highest in history, below the 309.68 in October of the 20/21 crop.
With regard to sales for the month, we have a figure of 143.61 million pounds, compared to 219.83 million pounds last year, which means -34.67% of sales in the month of March.
The export shipments have been 214.63 Mlbs (+24.0%), a record figure. Domestic shipments amounted to 66.44 million pounds (-7.5%).
Regarding the crop, we have an entry of 2,540.80 Mlbs (-12.43%). However, in the total harvest, adding the carryin (836.81 Mlbs (+37.60%)), we have 3,326.79 Mlbs (-3.62%). If this figure remains constant, we will end up with a total harvest of around 2.55 Blbs, slightly less than the estimate of 2.60 Blbs that is being considered.
In terms of what is sold and not shipped, we have a total of 647.23 Mlbs (-22.23%). The shelled, compared to domestic, would be 289.93 Mlbs (-5.23%) and the exported 357.30 Mlbs (-32.11%).
With this situation, a total of 881.15 Mlbs (-5.89%) would remain unsold (carrying).
With this data we can see that overall 2,445.67 Mlbs have been sold, -2.77% compared to last year when 2,515.35 Mlbs were sold, which means that we are in a worse sales position than last year with -3.62% of the total available harvest. This means that 72.21% of the total crop has been sold, assuming that this remains at 2.55 Blbs plus the carryin already indicated. Last year 72.87% was sold. This means that, with equal shipments in the coming months until the end, there would be a carryin of 600/650 Mlb, lower than what we have had this year by around -25%. At this point we recall that, from March onwards, last year, shipments started to be spectacular month by month due to the delay in the previous months due to logistical problems. This means that surpassing or even equalling last year's shipments in the coming months is quite a lofty goal. This March has been more than achieved, but judging by the low sales in February and March, it will be complicated unless this changes.
With regard to the destination of shipments, countries such as China (up very, very strongly), India (up very strongly), Germany (up very strongly), Italy (up strongly), Saudi Arabia (up strongly), Turkey (up very strongly), the United Arab Emirates (up very, very strongly), Libya (up strongly), Algeria (up strongly) and Morocco (up very strongly) stand out positively. On the negative side are important countries such as Canada, Japan, South Korea, France, the Netherlands (down sharply) and the United Kingdom (down very sharply). In Spain the situation has been negative, with 21.05 Mlbs this month against 29.66 Mlbs the previous year (-29.03%). In total, 136.51 Mlbs of crop has been exported this year and last year 128.55 Mlbs (+6.19%). In Europe overall 70.84 Mlbs this month compared to 77.08 Mlbs last year (-8.06%). The total crop has been exported to Europe +2.36% more than last harvest.
With these data we observe bullish factors such as the very good data on shipments and other bearish ones such as the poor sales in March and the less sold not shipped (future sales). It is clear that if prices rise, sales are reduced and affected. Shipments have been very good because of the good sales obtained in December and January.
It seems that the driving force behind these good shipments has been Asian and Arab countries. Europe continues to be rather low.
If we look back over the last month, prices after February shipments took the highest values of the whole crop reaching levels of around 1.85 $/lb, always talking about std 5%. But after a few days at these levels and due to the lack of demand and activity, prices began to fall back to levels of around 1.70 $/lb even a little lower, which is the situation we had until these shipments.
The context we had was very bullish, to be honest. Very bad flowering conditions for the next harvest, rains in the bee's flight which caused bad pollination, flooded fields, problems for the treatment of the tree? These are very important aspects that lead us to think that the crop could be seriously affected. With this and the good data on shipments since December, especially since January, there are more than enough conditions for a bullish price. In fact, we went from 1.55 $/lb to the aforementioned 1.85 $/lb. However, in spite of everything, the price ended up retreating in the face of the passivity of demand with the bullish prices, which led to a change of direction in the market and a further fall in prices, in order to improve activity. For many, this turnaround cannot be explained if a very bad harvest is really on the horizon, but it really remains to be seen. We know it will not be excellent, but the extent to which it has been affected will be known in the coming weeks. Some people are talking about 2.2 Blbs, 2.4 Blbs or similar to this crop. It depends on the area they are in, which also has an influence on the results.
The first crop estimates will be delayed because of the delay of the harvest itself, but we will have the first data at the end of April and the beginning of May.
The American seller is convinced that these first estimates will be low and the market will go up quite a lot, time will tell.
If we really have a crop of 2.2 Blbs and shipments are maintained as last year, which is difficult, ending up with a carryin of 0.6 Blbs, we will have a total crop of 2.8 Blbs, which makes a more manageable number and will leave a more bearable carryin for the next harvest. This would be upward pricing. But if you have something similar to this year, 2.55 Blbs and the next shipments are not the same as last year and cause a carryin of 0.70 Blbs for example, we go to 3.25 Blbs, not so different to this crop? anything can happen but it looks like these should be the extremes up or down.
For the time being, based on this data, we want to put the level at a floor of $1.80/lb, but if it has not been very well received so far, this may not be a good idea to revitalise sales and in a few days time it may fall back again due to the lack of activity. Or the opposite may be the case, with a positive effect on activity, and it may take hold.
What is clear is that the data for the next harvest will be key and the rest is simply the garnish.
As far as Spanish almonds are concerned, it has been a totally inactive and rather apathetic month. Faced with the rise in the American price, prices reached levels of 4.20/4.30 €/kg depending on the variety and size, prices that have almost been maintained until these shipments in spite of the aforementioned fall in the American price.
In the last few days we have heard some talk of 4.15 €/kg for a single variety or 4.10 €/kg for a communa or 4.20/4.25 €/kg for a guara. But all orchestrated by a very low activity. Demand is very weak, even more so when the Spanish demand separates from the American one, and there is no pressure on supply. As a result, the market remains at an apparently unreal price, influenced by one-off operations and not at all based on latent activity.
We will see what position it takes after these data.
For its part, the organic market seems to have found its active situation at levels of 6.50 €/kg and a lot of things have been done to the point of turning around this situation of inactivity that we have been experiencing for months. The price seems to have reached its floor.
The rest of the more specific varieties (belona, constanti, marcona, largueta...) are so inactive that it is difficult to even find a transaction that allows us to have an idea of the price.
We hope this helps.
Thanks
