We would like to share with you the most important points, in our opinion, about the last post of APRIL SHIPMENTS 2022:
- Total Shipments are 245,24 Mlbs (-1.9% compared to the previous year, which were 249.91 Mlbs). Unexectedly, another very good data on shipments as we also had last March, which seems to suggest on the one hand a possible logistical recovery of shipments, but on the other don’t due to it has been a really fast change and also are some news about abandonment of two shipping companies in the area.
- Total shipments throughout the year to date are -13.48%.
- The harvest get was of 2.90 Blbs which, together with the carryn, make an availability of 3.45 Blbs.
- Monthly sales have been 168.00 Mlbs. This is better than last year the same month by +3.30%.
- Domestic shipments have been quite negative with -10.90% (62.43 Mlbs).
- Export shipments have been a record with +1.70 (182.81 Mlbs).
- Shipments to Europe are 71.28 Mlbs, this is -5.32% compared to last year.
- Spain has shipped 31.41 Mlbs, +66.63% compared to last year which was 18.85 Mlbs.
- If these shipments continue with this positive dynamic, it may be that the overage (carryin) is not 1 Blbs as was discussed but is more than 0.9 Blbs (it is the figure that is being considered the most now and the one that has been published in congress) even somewhat less…
Then reviewing estimates, we know that Terra Nova published an estimate of 2.90 Blbs based on a yield of 2,100 lbs/acre) and an acreage of 1,380,000 acres (the official acreage has been 1,370,000 acres). If an excess of 0.9 Blbs is considered, we are talking about an available amount of 3.8 Blbs, the largest in history.
Today an estimate has come out from some other source as well as the one offered by the INC congress in Dubai and they have published a 2.80 Blbs.
Based on the market, after these commented data, the supply seems to remain firm in its idea of $1.75/1.77/lb for the current harvest and about $1.85/lb for the new harvest, although with little supply. Vendors are more focused on the current one with high differences compared to other varieties and sizes such as the Non Pareil. The demand, especially European, a little uncertain, awaits the future with great anticipation and with the exchange prices to € higher than its pretensions. Also well covered as we have seen in the last two shipments. The result is a lack of activity, or at least quieter than we normally have. Sellers are more active in countries in the Middle East, India and China but no in Europe.
Regarding the Spanish almond, when it comes to harvests, apart from the 75,000 tons that have been recently published, we must consider a surplus that could be approximately 30,000 tons (according to data offered at the congress) so Portugal can produce a potential of 25,000 Tn (data also from the congress), we will have a total available in the Iberian Peninsula of around 130,000 Tn. In the current harvest, there was a surplus of 20,000 tons from the previous one, with the harvest of 105,000 tons and Portugal 15,000 tons, we have 140,000 tons, something not so different from what is supposed for next year.
As we have mentioned, market activity is very low from both sides, selling and buying, especially internationally. Currently the price ranges between €4.20/4.30/kg depending on deliveries, sizes and varieties. The organic one, which has stopped its downward trend and has been placed in an equally inactive way, but not with that downward feeling that was being breathed, at around €8/kg. As for the new harvest, the buyer seems interest at levels of €4.20/4.25/kg, but no interest on the part of the offer that has higher pretensions.
