We already have the last report of the American shipments from AUGUST 2021. With this report the current 2021/2022 campaign begins.
Shipments have been 207.35 Mlbs (+ 7.41%), higher than August of last year that were 193.05 Mlbs. This means that it is a record number in the history of the months of August.
Export shipments have been 140.80 Mlbs (+ 10.76%), also being a record. The domestic ones have been 66.56 Mlbs (+ 0.95%), in this case it is not a record figure.
Regarding the harvest, we have an input of 311.55 Mlbs (+ 14.49%), assuming a total harvest available with the carryin of 913.46 Mlbs (+ 27.43%). This means that there is a carryin of 608.14 Mlb.
Regarding what was sold and not shipped, we have a total of 716.25 Mlbs (-32.15%). Shelling would be, if we compare to domestic, 273.38 Mlbs (-33.80%) and exports 442.87 Mlbs (-31.08%).
With these data we can see that in general, 923.61 Mlbs have been sold, down -26.03% from last year. This is something that could happen because despite the good shipments, as a result of the good sales of the previous campaign and the advancement of the buyer in shipping what was purchased, for fear of logistical problems regarding delays, what was sold and not shipped or what was sold to longer term it was being much more deficient than the year before. We have already seen in previous shipments that sales of current crop were being much lower, and this has continued in August with very low activity.
Regarding the destination of shipments, countries such as China (strong rise), Japan (strong rise), South Korea (very strong rise), Vietnam (very strong rise), Germany (strong rise), Holland, United Arab Emirates or Turkey stand out. On the negative side, important countries such as India, Italy or Morocco appear. In Spain the situation has been positive, with 17.11 Mlbs this month compared to 15.54 Mlbs the previous year (+ 10.10%). The previous campaign closed with exports to Spain of + 24.09%. In Europe in general, 57.06 Mlbs this month compared to 50.91 Mlbs the previous year (+ 12.08%). The total of the previous season a + 22.61% was exported. Bad news for the Spanish almond...
These data leave different point of view. On the one hand, we have good shipments, bullish data, but on the other hand, we have bad future sales, bearish data. The harvest entry is higher than last year, but this does not mean that there is more almond. The harvest has been advanced due to fear of the lack of water and high temperatures, which is why more has entered. The
actual harvest data will be normalized with the next reports. It does not make sense, as we see in this report, that the harvest is + 14.49% when it has been said that the harvest will be approximately -10%, according to objective estimation data.
What can be seen is that the activity on the recent months has been deficient, especially in new harvests. The activity has been reduced due to the increase on prices and the no necessity, apparently, for a buyer, showing as being sufficiently supplied (see the good export data mentioned above to Spain and Europe). We have previously commented that the market was subject, even with rising prices despite little activity and buyer support, due to the existing drought problems and what it entails not only in this harvest, but in the future. We can already see that the average entry size is lower this year and the large sizes are quite bulky differentials from the small ones. But despite this, we insist, the activity has been very scarce and the buyer continues in his position of not participating in this market at these levels because he does not consider himself nervous or needy and thinks that this issue depends on the sky, something that can change from one moment to another. We will see how far the capacity of each one reaches, the seller to endure with few sales and the buyer supplied not to buy.
A few days ago the price fell a bit waiting for the buyer response that did not materialize. In fact, the operations that were carried out, especially speaking of Europe, were at a lower market price, a buyer seduced not by necessity, but by low cost. In fact, the price went to around $ 2.40 / lb in old crop and $ 2.45 / lb in new crop, speaking of Std 5%.
On the Spanish almond, the activity in recent weeks has been low, especially due to the dates in which we are in the campaign, where the usual thing is to have a greater activity. As with the American, the buyer is calm, with little need, little seduced by prices to go medium / long term, and launching to buy short term what he needs. The seller is not very active, also surprising on the dates that we are. The reason is that the shell market is much more active and operations are carried out at high prices, which sometimes have nothing to do with the grain situation. This causes a traffic jam at the exit of the same that waits for a rise, according to what was paid in shell, which does not arrive.
Result, lack activity. On the last days, prices have remained stable around € 4.50 / 4.60 / kg, depending if we are talking about Guara or some other single variety, giving the market a somewhat heavier feeling in recent days. The export is very stopped, with purchase intentions below the sales intentions, which leads to a lack of activity.
We will see what direction the market takes after these data. Whatever it is, we hope that it is an active direction on the market, not the other way around, above all, for the sake of its stable operation.
We hope this helps.
Thank you very much.
