The market in California continues its upward trend. We say this because it seems we have reached a point where one feels one has a narrow view of the situation and perhaps what one sees is not representative of the overall picture, with activity remaining low as far as the European market is concerned. We are seeing the highest prices in recent years; today, for a 5% standard grade, the minimum asking price is $3.30/lb (€6.45–6.50/kg). European buyers cannot understand why prices have reached this level when, on the face of it, nothing significant has happened to warrant it. Indeed, with a harvest similar to the previous one, the 2025 harvest has performed just as well, with a higher average price. However, the prices we are seeing today are very different from the price rise, for a harvest of comparable size, between 2024 and 2025. In other words, assuming similar harvests in 2024, 2025 and the current 2026, the current price rise is much greater than the rise seen in 2026 – without anything significant having happened.
It is true that there are reports from California suggesting that the harvest does not look set to be as good as expected (similar to that of 2025) and that what is being harvested so far suggests it will be a poor one. But we think it is too early to draw any conclusions.
European buyers believe that, even if the harvest is slightly smaller, this would not justify these prices; consequently, their stance is to stay on the sidelines as much as possible. Suppliers, for their part, remain focused on the husk, a market in which they operate without competition and which will keep them busy until well into September, whilst the European market deliberates over whether or not to enter. During this time, any European buyer wishing to make a transaction will have to pay the asking price. This is the typical buyer-seller standoff, where the most important factor is the level of resilience or need on either side.
In all this, the SPANISH ALMOND emerges as an alternative. On the one hand, we have a market expecting an unprecedented volume of almonds, yet at the same time prices in California are rising steadily and there is an unjustified gap between those and Spanish prices. The result? Hold out, do not sell, in order to trigger a rise in prices that will allow them to close the gap with the competition – the American almond. But this year, another question arises… how long can they hold out given the massive volume expected? This will depend on each producer’s industrial, financial and storage capacity. But for now, given this situation, the stance is to wait. Until when? Probably until prices rise sufficiently, if the American market stalls, or until they can no longer hold out.
Demand, for its part – which does not extend to American almonds, at least not in large volumes – is also waiting in the Spanish market. At the widely varying prices we are seeing at the moment, there is certainly interest. But of course, the moment you raise the price even slightly, it feels as though the whole thing is about to collapse. How much is demand willing to pay today? It’s not clear, but what we do know is that it isn’t paying what the supply side is asking for. And this brings us to the big question… how long can demand hold out in this situation of stagnation and lack of activity? How well covered will it be?
This is probably – assuming the US market remains strong – the key question. Which will hold out longer? Will supply cut back on sales in a bid to bring prices closer to those of the competition, whilst bearing the burden of the large harvest? Or will demand reduce its appetite for purchases to counter this trend and bring prices down, depending on the level of hedging it has in place? The buyer’s level of hedging plays a crucial role here.
With all this going on, the market is virtually at a standstill. To the extent that today we don’t know the actual prices of things. We know the upward trend is in place, we know where everyone thinks prices are heading, but we don’t know exactly where we stand today. A buyer who needs something will have to pay whatever they’re asked, and a seller who needs to sell will have to do so for whatever they’re offered. Today, quoting a price will be cheap for some and expensive for others. It’s quite a complex situation. The key? Who will hold out the longest – the seller or the buyer, each with their own circumstances? Ideally, both would come out of their shells at the same time, agree on a fair price for everyone, and let the level of activity return to what it deserves. That would be best for the sector, but even so, it’s asking a lot.
We hope our comments will help.
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