The publication of the objective estimate for the next harvest 2024 prepared by the Department of Agriculture has been received. The result is as follows:
1.380.000 acres × 2.030 lb/acre = 2,80 Blbs
With this figure we would have a total harvest of 3.25 Blbs (adding the surplus that is estimated to be around 450 Mlbs). The current harvest we have a total (with the surplus) of 3.19 Blbs. We would be talking about +1.88%. In other words, we would have an available crop very similar to that of the current season we have just finished.
Thinking back, the subjective estimate (farmers) was 3 Blbs and Terranova was 2.97 Blbs. This subjective estimate would be -6.67% than the objective and -5.72% than Newfoundland. The reason the subjective was lower than the objective is the lower yield. The subjective was 2,170 lb/acre.
We recall that last year for the current crop 2023 the subjective estimate was 2.60 Blbs and finally the final crop input will be around 2.45 Blbs. We are talking about +7.69% with respect to last year's subjective and +14.29% with respect to the final.
This situation is likely to generate a bullish situation.
Thank you very much.
