MOST IMPORTANT SHIPPING RESULTS MARCH 2024:
- Shipments: 221.37 Mlbs (-6.6%)
- Sales for the month of March: 217.59 Mlbs (+19.8%)
- Total sales to date: 2,383.33 Mlbs (-1.3%)
– Carryin: 502,65 Mlbs (-37,2%)
– Crop intake: 2.700,70 Mlbs (+10,8%)
- Total available quantity (harvest + surplus harvest 23): 3,149.33 Mlbs (-1.2%)
– Total shipped: 1.809,70 Mlbs (-1,6%)
- Total sold unshipped: 573.63 Mlbs (-0.3%)
– Total unsold: 766,00 Mlbs (-1,1%)
- Shipments to Spain in March: 12.83 Mlbs (-34.5%) (overall -18.1%)
- Shipments to Europe in March: 52.26 Mlbs (-19.1%) (total -3.4%)
- Major countries with positive shipments: Canada, Japan, India, Italy, the Netherlands and Algeria.
- Major countries with negative shipments: Domestic market, China, South Korea, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Morocco.
SHIPMENT AND MARKET ANALYSIS
In general, the result obtained in this report has been positive. It is true that shipments have been negative, which would invite pessimistic thinking. But let us remember that we are currently at a price that is almost double the price of March 2024. With this, getting over 200 Mlbs of shipments is not bad at all. If you compare it to last year you see a negative number, but if you look at it overall, it is pretty decent with the prices you have over last year.
Add to this the month of March we have had, especially the second half of it. A lot of uncertainty, speculation and not knowing what is going to happen with the trade war and retaliatory tariffs between countries. In addition, added to the sector's own uncertainty about the progress, state of flowering and its possible effect on the future harvest. But not content with this, the price, with all this environment, continues with strength and upward trend from levels of $ 2.60 / lb to levels around $ 3 / lb, talking about Std 5%. It is worth mentioning that it is the product that has risen the most in the last weeks, getting much closer to the rest of the products, calibers and qualities. In fact, in a range of 0.20 $/lb you find most of the products.
Therefore, with all this that we have just mentioned, with so much uncertainty, doubts and quite diffuse aspects that make the market evolve in an irregular way, decent shipments are achieved. Moreover, the monthly sales figure is spectacular. With the price levels that are handled, the big difference with respect to last year, a total of only -1.58% has been shipped and a total of -1.29% has been sold, with a total available harvest very similar to that of the previous year. This leaves the seller in a very comfortable and advantageous position.
The buyer, who has no choice but to accept these prices and forget about last year's levels, to a greater or lesser extent, needs to buy and, especially if we are talking about the European level, he is taking the plunge in the very short/medium term after the tariff news.
With all this tariff issue, it is true that the last part of March, as well as the first part of April, has been very inactive as far as Europe is concerned. This can be seen in the negative figures for Europe this month and consequently for Spain. The buyer, quite worried about a possible tariff on his American purchases, has remained rather on the sidelines until the final outcome was known, which has led to 2/3 weeks of very little trading. Finally, for now, it seems that everything is frozen for 90 days and the last thing we know is that, if no agreement is reached, there will be a tariff on almonds starting on December 1. There is a lot of hope that, until then, there will be an agreement and we won't get to this point. But the possibility is still in the air. A few days ago we have known this news, which has relaxed the atmosphere, at least in the short/medium term, and the market has been reactivated with some buying hunger which has caused another small rise in prices, talking about Std 5% more at levels of 3.05/3.07 $/lb.
Regarding the flowering progress, at the beginning there was more negative news that the flowering of Non Pareil, the main variety in the valley, was not going very well. It seemed that the flowering progress was not correct and the drop was too much for the date. But this has relaxed a lot and it seems that the passing of the days has shown that the situation is not as bad as it seemed at the beginning and, despite not speaking at any time of a spectacular harvest, there is talk of a possible good harvest to come, probably similar to the current one. At least for now, but many things can still happen. Very soon, in the next few days, we will have the first reference estimate, the one offered by Terra Nova.
Following the publication of this report, the market has continued its upward progression. We repeat, it was already before this report due to increased buying from Europe. Today there is already talk of Std 5% plus at $3.10/lb levels. It is curious because the currency exchange plays an important role. Today's exchange rate is at 1.14, values that we have not seen for a long time. Curiously, today at 3.10 $/lb it is cheaper in € than two days ago at 3 $/lb the std 5%.
Regarding Spanish almonds, it seems that some sales are encouraged after knowing that, at least in the short term, EU tariffs will not affect almonds at least until December 1. On top of that, we are now entering a 3-month truce that softens the situation even more. It seems unthinkable to keep almonds from this harvest until December without even knowing what will happen. The remaining unsold almonds, many in shell in the hands of storekeepers and brokers, as well as those in the hands of shellers, the least, should start to come out.
It is difficult to answer the question of whether there is a lot or a little unsold Spanish. Some speak of around 30,000 tn, others say maybe more and most say less, between 10/20,000 tn. Probably the correct answer is between 20/30,000 tn. This was an entire Spanish crop not so long ago.
With all this uncertainty that we have mentioned before, the Spanish almond has been 1 month of total supply stoppage and the market has risen at least 0.70/80 €/kg. Now that tariff issues are clarified and when we have more clarity on how the flowering has gone, more supply should start to come out.
Demand is strong. Supply is starting to show. Vaguely, but it is showing. At least, we have already seen, after so many days, some operation that makes us place ourselves at least for now at levels around 6.40 €/kg speaking of a Proprietary Commune. The supply is still scarce, lower than the demand, which may lead us to think that it can, on a par with the American almond, continue with an upward progression. We shall see.
Regarding organic almonds, we still do not have much news. Unlike the rest of the year, we do see a change in the dynamics, we do not know if it is caused by the situation or if it could be a trend. We see a little more demand than supply, which is nil. We are not clear what the price is today, nothing has been done as a reference that can tell us. But judging by the conventional and by the situation we have today of more demand than supply, the question remains as to whether prices could rise at the same level as the conventional.
We hope our comments will help.
Thanks
