MOST IMPORTANT RESULTS SHIPMENTS DECEMBER 2025
– Shipments: 245,76 Mlbs (+5,4%)
– December sales: 196,66 Mlbs (+7,7%)
– Total sales until date: 1.566,77 Mlbs (-8,2%)
– Carryin: 483,81 Mlbs (-3,8%)
– Crop intake: 2.512,49 Mlbs (-2,5%)
– Total quantity available (harvest + surplus from harvest 24): 2,946.05 Mlbs (-2.7%)
– Total sold without shipment: 496.19 million pounds (-11.6%)
– Total unsold: 1.379,28 Mlbs (+4,4%)
– Shipments to Spain in December: 20.11 million pounds (+23.4%) (total since August +19.6%)
– Shipments to Europe in December: 67.22 million pounds (+4.5%) (total since August: -0.2%)
– Major countries with positive shipments: Canada, China, South Korea, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom, Turkey (sharp increase), United Arab Emirates, Algeria, and Morocco.
– Major countries with negative shipments: Domestic market, Japan, India, France, the Netherlands, and Saudi Arabia.
After experiencing negative or very negative shipments since the harvest began in August, December has brought, against all odds, a month of positive shipments. We emphasise that these are the first positive figures for the 2025 harvest. The same happens for sales: apart from August, when sales were positive, monthly sales for the rest of the year up to December were negative compared to last year. Here we have a December with positive sales, although total sales remain negative, logically after several months of negative sales. Sales are down 8.16% compared to last year, with only 2.67% of the total almond supply available. In other words, sales are lower than the amount of almonds available, compared to last year.
The crop intake, which is very important, has improved compared to the -6.60% we had in last November's shipments. In other words, the harvest is closer to last year's 2.70 Blbs. This data remains unknown, but will gradually become clearer as the months go by. However, a priori, it should not vary too much either above or below last year's total value.
Therefore, we have bullish data such as shipments and sales, as opposed to bearish data such as a better harvest than in previous years. In previous reports, the poor harvest as bullish data offset the poor shipments and sales as bearish data, leaving the market stable and unchanged. In this case, we will see if the better harvest as bearish data offsets the good shipments and sales as bullish data, ultimately leaving everything more or less unchanged. We will see this in the coming days.
Meanwhile, the market remains calm. Buyers continue to take a short-term view, purchasing only what is necessary on a daily basis, without trusting the market and anticipating a decline that has yet to materialise. On the contrary, sellers are in a completely opposite position, seeing a stable market with the possibility of even rising further if the lack of harvest in California is confirmed. All this, with speculation and data on the new harvest just around the corner. Be that as it may, since August, prices have remained stable, with little change, causing a calm market, all in the short term and without major movements in the market.
We will see if these shipments alter this stability in any way or encourage the market to move and start generating higher turnover.
We hope our comments will help.
Thanks
