MOST IMPORTANT SHIPMENT RESULTS DECEMBER 2024:
- Shipments: 233.09 Mlbs (+1.6%)
- Sales for the month of December: 182.53 Mlbs (-16.8%)
- Total sales to date: 1,705.96 Mlbs (-4.3%)
– Carryin: 502,65 Mlbs (-37,2%)
- Crop intake: 2,575.85 Mlbs (+15.6%)
- Total available quantity (crop+ surplus crop23): 3,026.98 Mlbs (+1.5%)
- Total shipped: 1,144.76 Mlbs (0.0%)
- Total sold unshipped: 561.21 Mlbs (-12.0%)
- Total unsold: 1.321,02 Mlbs (+9,9%)
- Shipments to Spain in December: 16.29 Mlbs (-16.2%) (total -15.7%)
- Shipments to Europe in December: 64.33 Mlbs (+3.3%) (total +0.4%)
- Major countries with positive shipments: Japan, South Korea, Germany, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Morocco.
- Major countries with negative shipments: Domestic market, China, India, Italy, United Kingdom and United Arab Emirates.
SHIPMENT AND MARKET ANALYSIS
This report leaves a mixture of sensations. On the one hand, there is a bullish and positive feeling when a new positive shipment figure is observed again, and this is the third consecutive one, with prices substantially higher than the current ones. It makes visible, a priori, that the market assumes this rise. It can be seen how areas that were apparently not very active are beginning to take on importance, as is the case of Europe.
On the other hand, there are some not so bullish data. The first of these is the crop intake. If we look back, in the summer months, after the publication of the objective estimate, which was already a surprise (2.8 Blbs) because we came from a higher subjective estimate (3 Blbs), it was questioned whether the 2.8 Blbs would be reached. Many opinions, especially from the southern part of the valley, said that if we were lucky we would reach 2.5/2.6 Blbs. This theme was one of the main drivers, among others, for the market to take a bullish path that continues to this day. However, with this report, we see the entry of almost 2.58 Blbs and all that is still left. Averaging what is left to come in from the last few years, we go to figures of 2.75/2.80 Blbs, as stated in the objective estimate which was called into question. From California it is said that this year they have increased their industrial capacity and it has entered much faster than usual, they even think that 95/97% has already entered, so little more would be left to enter. Others say that we will still go to around 2.70 Blbs. Be that as it may, what is already clear is that it will not be as bad with respect to the objective as it was said and we will have to see in the next months how everything will be. But for the time being, we have almost 16% more received than last year, not bad numbers.
Another not-so-good statistic is monthly sales, which have been downright poor. Long-term unshipped sales are also not too good and total sales to date are negative.
However, we are talking about a price increase of about $1/lb compared to December 2023 and you have the same shipped, total sales are somewhat lower and total crop availability is little more this year. Not bad at all.
The issue is whether the crop increases in values similar to those of last year, which would leave more available, and if shipments and sales continue at rates similar to those of last year, there would be a surplus of more than 500 Mlbs of this crop. In other words, if the crop continues to increase, it will have to be sold not as last year, but more than last year in order to have a similar situation and surplus.
Therefore, the results are ambiguous. Everyone can take the data they are interested in to reinforce their opinion. This is left to each reader's taste.
The market, after the publication of these reports, has not reacted much. It remains in a similar position. For the U.S. seller it is good data and leaves a feeling of stability with bullish breath. For the buyer it leaves a feeling of insecurity and lack of confidence. In short, prices have undergone few variations and everything continues in a similar way as before shipments.
It seems that this will be the market dynamics until the new harvest data. Continuous, stable and strengthened dynamics. It only seems that it could be modified by a continuation of negative/positive future shipments data, reduction/increase of sales or that there is a very good or very bad forecast for the next harvest. One way or the other, we will see it rather in the medium term than in the short term.
Below is a chart showing the price evolution of the American almond:
The Spanish almond continues to be the great beneficiary of this whole situation. It flows easily and shows itself as a real and attractive alternative to American almonds. The campaign has been very active and the Spanish industrial situation has been at its maximum capacity. If one wants to know what has been split and, possibly almost delivered, of Spanish almonds it will suffice to know the total Spanish industrial capacity. It leaves a feeling that it may have been one of the most worked and sold campaigns. This makes us think that it could be one of the harvests with less remaining, in comparison with the total amount of the harvest, from January onwards. And let's remember, this harvest is possibly the largest in history.
Many believe that only 30/35% of the entire crop may remain to be sold. In other words, 65/70% of the entire harvest has been sold in 4 months and only 30/35% of the harvest remains for the remaining 8 months. This is a staggering figure.
With prices better than last year and with the upward trend that has been present throughout the season, the sale of almonds in shell has flowed, which has allowed the kernel seller to have more coverage and to go more to the market. It has clearly taken advantage of the situation in Europe of lack of confidence in the American almond and the trend of movements in the market in the short term.
Regarding prices, bullish situation. With the price differential down with respect to the American almond, the latent demand that is presented and the good situation (quite sold and with work for the coming weeks), the Spanish almond is in a very comfortable situation. Probably, as the availability of almonds decreases, prices will approach the American prices. At least that is what is thought because, as long as there is a downward differential with respect to the American almond, it will continue to be a real alternative to all those buyers who do not know it or who do not usually work it.
Below, we show the price evolution of Spanish almonds and its comparison with American almonds:
The organic almond has been affected lately by a bullish situation but not by the operation of the organic market itself but pushed by the conventional rising price. In fact, for some time now the differential between the two has been reduced to +0.30/0.40 €/kg. The concern comes because neither with prices close to conventional has seen a strong increase in interest, which clearly shows how damaged this market is now, much to do the exorbitant prices of past seasons.
The price evolution is shown below:
We hope our comments will help.
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